College Football: Floundering Pac 12 needs to face reality

There has been plenty of turmoil in college football’s history from the west coast of the U.S. The Pacific Coast Conference came together in 1915 with the association of Cal-Berkeley, Washington, Oregon and Oregon State. Washington State joined in 1918 and Stanford was added in 1919. Idaho, USC, Montana and UCLA were late additions in the 1920s.

After a disagreement, Montana dropped out in 1950. Other disagreements among the remaining members were given added fuel from an Oregon scandal in 1951. Bickering, distrust and more scandal led to the end of the PCC in 1959. Washington, Cal, USC, UCLA and Stanford formed the Athletic Association of Western Universities.

The next iteration was the Big Six in 1962, and the Pacific 8 in 1964. The conference grew and became the Pac-10 in 1978 and the Pac-12 in 2010. A vanilla version of Pac-12 history is available here.

Fast forward to today and the conference is floundering, with little likelihood of stabilizing as a ‘Power’ conference. Instead of scandal, the current problem is a lack of interest. The lack of interest is symbolized by the inability of the conference to gain a new media rights deal. Not only has the Los Angeles media market been lost to the Big 10, media companies no longer calculate future eyeballs on the basis of TV households. And interest in the television product, provided by 2024, Pac-12 teams, is dwindling.

The major linear broadcast (as in traditional TV, distributed through cable or satellite) entities are unwilling to pay big bucks for Pac-12 games. Even major streaming properties have so far balked on high-dollar deals with the Pac-12. Sports media experts predict, whatever the 2024, Pac-12 (or 10) puts together, the payouts to each school will be below Big 12 payouts. The Big 12 payouts are also considerably lower than SEC and Big 10 payouts.

For Pac-12 football, the situation is both serious and laughable. The tweet below is outrageous in its suggestion but emblematic of an unappreciated source of content.

The Pac-12 keeps avoiding college football reality

At any point, the 2024 season’s soon-to-be Pac-10 could become the Pac-4, with the Big 10 and the Big 12 gobbling up Washington, Oregon, Colorado, Utah, Arizona, and Arizona State. The Big 10 has been on hold, awaiting a new Commissioner. It has one now in Tony Petitti, who is a veteran TV executive. The priority target for Big 10 expansion is Notre Dame. But if the Irish stubbornly cling to their independence, Washington and Oregon could be next for the Big 10.

The Arizona schools and Colorado have been forced to deny plans or even discussions about moving to the Big 12. Any day, that could change.

At some point, the Pac-12 will be forced to take on San Diego State and SMU. Out of desperation, a couple more schools could be added. Who knows, perhaps Montana wants to compete with a west coast group again … and maybe North Dakota State. Then college football will no longer have a Power Five.