In May, June and July there is not enough news for the appetites of many Alabama Football fans. One option is dialing down the every-moment fervor for a few weeks. Another is to dive head first into offseason speculation.
Though Nick Saban abhors hypotheticals, fans can embrace them with enthusiasm. One of mine is to believe ‘real’ rather than hyped National Championship contenders can be identified before the first practice rep of any team’s fall camp. So in May and June, I speculate on what teams are true National Championship contenders.
The exercise takes time. Every potential contender must be researched. After research is complete, comes the fun part. It is unbridled speculation.
Why talk about this now, when the result of my National Championship contenders list is weeks away? Because while reading today I ran across a reminder to be careful when speculating. Even being only semi-serious when speculating, wild claims can later haunt their source.
The example I saw came from Auburn Daily, which is no doubt a good source for Auburn information. The claim made was with the right quarterback in 2023, Auburn could win 10 games and contend for the SEC West title. Auburn fans believe Hugh Frezze landing Michigan State transfer, Payton Thorne will take a 5-7 team to a 10-2 one.
There is reason to believe Auburn will improve in 2023. The Tigers could win seven or eight games. Draft Kings, as reported by On3 has the Tigers projected at 6.5 wins. But a prediction of 10 wins is laughable. Hugh Freeze might be better than just a good coach, but drinking the Freeze Kool-Aid too soon could end badly.
On top of everything else last season, the Tigers had a serious talent deficiency. Even in the Portal era, such roster ills are not cured in one season.
Auburn needed a better QB and it got one in Payton Thorne. But, based on the NCAA stat for Passing Efficiency, Thorne was No. 76 among 113 FBS quarterbacks ranked last season. Ten SEC quarterbacks were ranked higher and six of them return for the 2023 season.
Jumping to a too-soon conclusion, Auburn fans are exuberant about Thorne. One example comes from Fly War Eagle with the proclamation,
"Finally, though, the Plains features the best passer in the Yellowhammer State once more."
Best 2023 QB, Alabama Football or the Auburn Tigers?
And in fairness to Andrew Hughes, maybe Payton Thorne will be a better passer in 2023 than whoever is QB1 for Alabama Football. But Thorne will have to do it with less talented teammates than the Bama starter will line up beside. Without sufficient help, even good quarterbacks become mediocre performers.
Speculation is good fun, especially in the offseason, as long as it doesn’t later slap you in the face.