College Football: Trying to find the next TCU in 2023

TCU became the darlings of the college football world last season. A popular theme this offseason is what teams have a chance to be the TCU of the 2023 season.

Underdog narratives have long intrigued fans. TCU and the job done by Sonny Dykes in just one season in Ft. Worth was exceptional. TCU won a total of 16 games in the three seasons before Dykes was hired to replace Gary Patterson. Last season the Horned Frogs won 13 and made it to the National Championship Game.

Sonny Dykes deserved the accolades he received, including Coach of the Year honors.

The flip side of the above is one season does not make any program elite. The 2022 Horned Frogs were a gritty bunch that often refused to lose, but some of the wins were squeakers over mediocre teams. SMU was 7-6 last season and TCU beat them by eight points. Oklahoma State also had a 7-6 record and TCU beat the Cowboys by just three points. TCU did not easily beat two teams that finished 6-7; outscoring Kansas by seven points and Baylor by just three points.

TCU also lost to Kansas State in the Big 12 Championship Game. The Wildcats were a good team, but also one Alabama Football cruised by in the Sugar Bowl by almost four touchdowns.

In a down year for the Big 12, TCU shined. That is a worthy accomplishment. However, TCU’s resume, other than upsetting Michigan in a Playoff semi-final was not enough to elevate the program to elite status.

There were two stories about TCU last season. One was the fast rise under Dykes and comeback performances that propelled the Horned Frogs to the upset of Michigan. The other was that TCU was badly outclassed by Georgia in the National Championship Game.

Which was the real TCU story? The 2023 season can provide an answer. In the interim, media-driven passions search for the next Cinderella of college football. The fascination with underdog stories leads to cycles of elevating some ‘just good’ teams to ‘elite’ status.

Overhyped College Football Programs

Looking back at recent seasons, overhyped programs have included UCF, Cincinnati and even Coastal Carolina. Despite baseless claims by Scott Frost in 2013, an undefeated UCF team was not worthy of National Championship consideration. Since that season, the post-season highlights of the UCF program have been two Union Home Mortgage Bowl wins.

It only took Luke Fickell three seasons to take the Bearcats from a Birmingham Bowl win to a CFB Playoff semi-final. In that Playoff game, Cincinnati lost to a not-great Alabama football team 27-6 and Nick Saban could have made the score margin more embarrassing.

At one point Coastal Carolina was ranked as the No. 9 team in college football. The Chanticleers are another fun college football fantasy. The reality is their greatest post-season achievement is winning the 2021 Cure Bowl.

The point is a good season, or even two or three, does not a great program make.

Hats off to TCU for last season, but the college football world could use some brake pumping. Awarding elite status to teams too easily clouds the fact that in any given season legitimate National Championship contenders are few.