Let me be clear, this post does not include a prediction that Alabama Football will be undefeated in 2023. A year ago, I made a prediction the 2022 Alabama Crimson Tide would go undefeated. And I made that prediction knowing Alabama had only three undefeated seasons going back to 1980.
My misguided boldness was driven by the knowledge Bryce Young was capable of making magic happen. He was that special, but given various, team inconsistencies and weaknesses, the 2022 Alabama football team was not capable of greatness.
Back to today, a more cautious approach is being offered. It is a consideration of the probability of the 2023 Crimson Tide going undefeated through the SEC Championship game.
ESPN’s FPI projects only three teams have more than a 6.8% chance to be undefeated in the regular season and conference championship games. The Crimson Tide is the third-highest at 13.6%. Above Alabama is Georgia at 22.4% and Ohio State at 34.3%.
Alabama football fans will also be interested to know the Texas Longhorns are at 2.9% and LSU is at 1.2%.
Reasons for and against an Alabama Football Undefeated Season
The reasons why an Alabama football undefeated season is possible also apply through the CFB Playoffs.
Let’s start with a recent comment by Josh Pate.
Alabama’s current roster includes 3 of the 6 highest rated recruiting classes in @247Sports history
— Josh Pate (@LateKickJosh) May 18, 2023
It takes more than talent to win championships, but if the Crimson Tide falls short in 2023 it will not be caused by a deficiency in talent. An elaboration of the Crimson Tide’s roster talent is provided by 247Sports’ annual Blue Chip Ratio (BCR).
The BCR has an impressive track record. Adapting it to include transfers, along with JUCO additions and blue-chip recruits is a work in progress. This year the BCR concludes 16 teams have the necessary talent to win a National Championship.
In the 2011 and 2012 seasons, Alabama won National Championships with a 71% BCR. The Crimson Tide’s 2015 National Champions had a 77% BCR and the 2017 National Champions had an 80% BCR. When Alabama won the 2020 National Championship it did so with an 83% BCR.
Georgia’s two recent National Championships came with BCR’s of 80% and 77%.
The BCR is not foolproof. Other factors, including coaching skill, player development, injuries, luck and sometimes officiating, determine the outcome of games. In 2021, Alabama had the highest BCR at 84% and lost to Georgia in the National Championship game.
The biggest reason against the Crimson Tide being undefeated in the 2023 season is not an unsettled quarterback situation. With so much talent in other position groups, a Crimson Tide QB with less talent than Bryce Young can be a national champion. The biggest obstacle for Alabama is the schedule. Adding to a regular season slate including Texas, Texas A&M, Tennessee and LSU, there would likely be two post-season games against Georgia.
Given the schedule difficulty, a one-loss 2023 season would be outstanding. Hopefully, that one loss will come in the Tide’s first 13 games, rather than in the last two.