Alabama Football: Over-Under wins and locked-in games for SEC teams

(Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
(Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images) /
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Without having to go to a betting site, Alabama football fans can take a look at ‘over-unders’ for all 14 SEC teams. Case Keefer of the Las Vegas Sun does a regular betting column. The ‘over-unders’ in this post are a compilation by Keefer from numerous sportsbooks.

For those interested in actual betting advice, click on the link above for more detail. This discussion is instead about the general outlook of success or failure for the 14 SEC teams. As always the success or failure, win total varies by program. Five wins by Vandy and seven wins by Auburn would be considered as success. Eight wins by Texas A&M would be a failure.

In the annual upper echelon of the SEC for Alabama Football and Georgia, even 11 wins can be a failure if they don’t result in a Playoff slot. LSU fans think the Bengal Tigers are in the same position. We’ll see if in 2023 the SEC has a Big Three, rather than a Big Two. Tennessee fans want to believe, the upper echelon of the SEC is a Big Four.

SEC Football ‘Over-Unders’

Note: These are regular season projections only.

  • Vanderbilt Commodores – 4 wins
  • Florida Gators – 5.5 wins
  • Missouri Tigers – 6 wins
  • South Carolina Gamecocks – 6 wins
  • Mississippi State Bulldogs – 6 wins
  • Arkansas Razorbacks – 6.5 wins
  • Auburn Tigers – 7 wins
  • Kentucky Wildcats – 7 wins
  • Ole Miss Rebels – 7.5 wins
  • Texas A&M Aggies – 8.5 wins
  • Tennessee Vols – 9 wins
  • LSU Bengal Tigers – 9.5 wins
  • Alabama Crimson Tide – 10 wins
  • Georgia Bulldogs – 11.5 wins

Don’t use this tip to wager as much as one dollar – but if tempted, take the under for Hugh Freeze’s team.

Also interesting to consider is how many teams have ‘baked-in’ wins. Using a recently updated ranking of all 133, FBS teams, provided by College Football News, SEC teams and their almost guaranteed wins are listed below. Only FCS teams and FBS teams ranked No. 100 and worse are listed. As an aside, when other 2023 algorithms are published, some will have FCS teams ranked higher than FBS teams.

Alabama Football Cupcake Opponents

The Crimson Tide has a tough SEC schedule because of challenging games against Texas, LSU, Tennessee, Texas A&M, and not easy games against Ole Miss, Arkansas and Kentucky. But the Crimson Tide has ‘locks’ against No. 111, MTSU; No. 107, USF and FCS Chattanooga.

Rest of the SEC

  • Arkansas – No. 128 Kent State; No. 131 FIU and FCS, Western Carolina
  • Auburn – No. 133, UMass; No. 120 New Mexico State and FCS, Samford
  • Florida – No. 127, Charlotte and FCS, McNeese State
  • Georgia – No. 119, Ball State; No. 100, UAB and FCS, UT-Martin
  • Kentucky – No. 124, Akron; No. 119, Ball State and FCS, Eastern Kentucky
  • LSU – Two LSU oppoents are ranked in the mid-nineties (Georgia State and Army), along with FCS, Grambling State
  • Mississippi State – No. 123, Western Michigan and FCS, Southeast Louisiana
  • Missouri – No. 111, MTSU and FCS, South Dakota
  • Ole Miss – No. 132 Louisiana-Monroe (ULM) and FCS, Mercer.
  • South Carolina – No. 130, Jacksonville State and FCS, Furman
  • Tennessee – No. 121, UConn and FCS, Austin Peay
  • Texas A&M – No. 132, ULM; No. 125 New Mexico and FCS, Abilene  Christian
  • Vanderbilt – No. 117, Hawaii; No. 114, UNLV and FCS, Alabama A&M

Crimson Tide Bringing Pain. dark. Next

The games must be won on the field and there will be upsets, but practically, going into the season, SEC teams are locked in for 36 wins.