Alabama Football: On preseason SEC odds and championships
By Ronald Evans
For the first time since 2009, Alabama Football is not the favorite to win the SEC Championship. In the Nick Saban Era of Alabama Football, the Alabama Crimson Tide has not been the preseason favorite of oddsmakers to win the SEC in only 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2023.
This season the Georgia Bulldogs are favored by a sizable margin. Alabama is next, followed by LSU. There is no reason for concern by Crimson Tide fans, preseason odds can provide some real misses.
Going into the 2022 season Alabama was not only the favorite to win the SEC, the Crimson Tide was a strong favorite to win the National Championship. In early September last year, David Purdum of ESPN wrote,
"Top-ranked Alabama kicks off its campaign Saturday as one of the biggest preseason national title favorites of the past 20 years.The Crimson Tide are around +180 to win the College Football Playoff at sportsbooks around the nation. Since 2001, only USC (+160) in 2005 and Alabama (+175) in 2018 had better preseason championship odds, according to SportsOddsHistory.com."
Unfortunately, the 2022 season became a good lesson in not trusting preseason odds. In fairness to oddsmakers, last season the Georgia Bulldogs at +435 were the third-highest favorite to win it all.
According to Vegas Insider, this season’s top National Championship odds are held by Georgia, at around +220, depending on the sportsbook source. The Alabama Crimson Tide is the second favorite at +600.
Getting back to Alabama Football and SEC Championship Odds
A review of SEC Championship odds going back to 2008 has been provided by betgeorgia.com. The actual data was sourced from sportshistory.com.
The SEC favorites in 2007 were Florida and LSU. LSU became the SEC Champion by defeating Tennessee in Atlanta.
- 2008 – Georgia was the preseason favorite at odds of +200. Florida, given preseason odds of +250, won the SEC Championship.
- 2009 – Florida was the favorite with -250 odds. Alabama, with +500 odds, won the Championship.
- 2010 – Alabama was the favorite with +110 odds. Auburn with +1000 odds won the Championship.
- 2011 – Alabama was the favorite with +200 odds. LSU, with +400 odds won the Championship.
- 2012 – Alabama was the favorite with +190 odds. The Crimson Tide won the Championship.
- 2013 – Alabama was the favorite with +105 odds. Auburn, with +10000 odds won the Championship.
- 2014 – Alabama was the favorite with +140 odds. Alabama won the Championship.
- 2015 – Alabama was the favorite with +180 odds. Alabama won the Championship.
- 2016 – Alabama was the favorite with +150 odds. Alabama won the Championship.
- 2017 – Alabama was the favorite with -225 odds. Georgia, with +800 odds won the Championship.
- 2018 – Alabama was the favorite with -160 odds. Alabama won the Championship.
- 2019 – Alabama was the favorite with -140 odds. LSU, with +1200 odds won the Championship.
- 2020 – Alabama was the favorite with -110 odds. Alabama won the Championship.
- 2021 – Alabama was the favorite with -165 odds. Alabama won the Championship.
- 2022 – Alabama was the favorite with -140 odds. Georgia, with +150 odds won the Championship.
The tally is in the 15 SEC Championships, going back to the 2008 season, the preseason odds favorite has won the Championship seven times.
Not that preseason odds much matter, but based on the SEC football history, Georgia is not likely to win the 2023 SEC Championship.