To some skipping past talking about week one for the Crimson Tide is a level of disrespect for MTSU Nick Saban would disdain. But unlike the Alabama football team, we can afford to get ahead of ourselves. Not to mention that the Crimson Tide has already spent more time analyzing Texas than it will have MTSU by Friday.
The second week of the college football season will be big for Alabama Football. It will be even bigger for the Texas Longhorns. Steve Sarkisian will bring a bunch of players to Tuscaloosa who will believe they were the better team last season in Austin.
Alabama does not have to win to later make the CFB Playoff, but for any team, an early loss narrows its margin for error window.
A starting point for predicting the 2023 game is that what happened in the 2022 game does not matter. Alabama will be a much different team without Bryce Young, along with hopefully being a better defensive team. Texas too will be a different team with Quinn Ewers healthy for a full game.
Alabama Football vs. Texas Game Predictions
According to ESPN Analytics, the Alabama Crimson Tide has a 73.3% probability of winning. It is interesting to note that the Tide’s toughest road game of the 2023 season is expected to be in College Station and ESPN gives the Tide a 79% probability to beat the Aggies.
TeamRankings.com, another stats and predictions source has Texas as Alabama’s second-toughest contest of the season. The predicted toughest is LSU with the Tide’s probability at 61%. The Tide’s number to beat Texas is 63.7%. The other three among the five toughest are Texas A&M (66.1%), Tennessee (67.8%), and Kentucky (78%). Alabama football fans will notice Auburn not being included in the Tide’s toughest games.
Four Predictions of a Texas Win
- Longhorns Wire has Texas winning 31-27, but later in the season losing to TCU and Texas Tech.
- Shane Shoemaker for ClutchPoints predicts a Texas win based on a belief that Quinn Ewers and Xavier Worthy will be Heisman Finalists.
- Andrew McCleary of Last Word on Sports has made several Big 12 predictions. One is while Alabama is “still trying to figure itself out offensively” Texas will win in Tuscaloosa. Another of his predictions is the Longhorns will lose to Houston.
- Kirk Bohls writing for the Austin American-Statesman says Texas will win in Tuscaloosa, but drop one game in the regular season; to TCU. Maybe Bohls somehow missed TCU in the National Championship game when the Horned Frogs lost by 58 points.
Some Crimson Tide and Longhorns Sanity (sort of)
- Hook’em Headlines, wanting to believe in Texas offered the sane conclusion below.
"Looking at the returning production (or lack thereof) that Alabama brings into the 2023 season, I have become increasingly optimistic Texas can hang with the Tide.Despite the lack of returning production, the Alabama roster has an absurd blue-chip roster percentage of 90. I love how Texas matches up with Alabama, but I can’t get myself to pick the Horns.Alabama 30 – Texas 27"
- College Football News (CFN) is a credible site, frequently filled with valuable information. In predicting the Crimson Tide’s wins and losses for 2023, CFN has the Crimson Tide beating Texas. CFN also has Alabama going 10-2 in the regular season, beating LSU and Tennessee, but losing to Texas A&M and based on a bizarre predictions turn, losing to Auburn.
I am offering no precise prediction in this post. Closer to the game I will, and I expect it to have the Crimson Tide as the winner. One reason I am waiting is, in my opinion, game predictions before either team has played can be summarized as a ‘dime a dozen.’