Alabama Football: Crimson Tide ranked No. 1 after MTSU win

Alabama Football was given a boost on Sunday with an updated ESPN FPI ranking the Crimson Tide No. 1 in the nation. It was not a big bump for Alabama. The FPI had the Crimson Tide at No. 2 before college football’s week one games.

Eight FBS teams still have week one games to play. LSU, currently No. 5 in the FPI, could move up with a win over Florida State on Sunday. Clemson, currently at No. 9, could rise above No. 9 with a Monday night win over the Duke Blue Devils. The possible wins for the ranked pair would not affect the Alabama Crimson Tide’s FPI ranking.

The FPI is a predictive ranking algorithm and as such it becomes more accurate with each successive week of the college football season. It is not designed as a current snapshot ranking of teams.

Alabama football fans will enjoy the Tide’s current No. 1 ranking, but the best value of the ESPN tool comes from assessing the probability of success for many teams.

The updated FPI gives the Crimson Tide the best chance to make the National Championship game at 41.6%, followed by the Ohio State Buckeyes at 38% and the Georgia Bulldogs at 20%. The only other teams with a double-digit percentage chance to make the Natty are Oklahoma at 17.3% and Southern Cal at 12.4%.

Only Alabama and Ohio State have a high probability of making the CFB Playoff, based on the FPI. Alabama is at 62.2% and Ohio State is at 60.2%. Georgia has the third-highest probability at 37.4%.

According to the current FPI, only four teams have a greater than 5.9% chance of going undefeated. They are Ohio State at 24.5%, Alabama at 20.3%, Oklahoma at 16.1% and Georgia at 11%.

Alabama Football 2023 Opponent FPI Ranking

• Texas Longhorns – No. 10
• South Florida Bulls – No. 105
• Ole Miss Rebels – No. 14
• Mississippi State Bulldogs – No. 28
• Texas A&M Aggies – No. 18
• Arkansas Razorbacks – No. 35
• Tennessee Vols – No. 13
• LSU Bengal Tigers – No. 5
• Chattanooga Mocs – N/A
• Auburn Tigers – No. 22

Going into week two for the Alabama Crimson Tide, ESPN’s Analytics gives Alabama an 80.9% probability of beating the Texas Longhorns.

Will the next AP Poll come close to matching ESPN’s FPI? Probably not, but the Crimson Tide might take Ohio State’s spot at No. 3 or possibly Michigan’s spot at No. 2.