Alabama’s latest win total projection hints that team is in trouble this season

Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports
Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports /

It hasn’t been the start the Crimson Tide faithful hoped for in 2023.

After losing to Texas at home, and then struggling to beat South Florida amidst quarterback changes, the Crimson Tide enter SEC play with as many questions in key places since Nick Saban took over the program back in 2007.

Oddsmakers have responded to the Crimson Tide’s slow start, giving the team an updated win total of just 8.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook.

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Let’s dissect if there is betting value in backing the Crimson Tide to clear this updated win total.

Alabama football schedule analysis

For starters, the Crimson Tide do figure to be favored in every game the rest of the season. The team’s toughest opponent, LSU, comes at home and the team travels to face Texas A&M in a game that should have the team favored by a small amount, assuming the team stabilizes now that the team has named Jalen Milroe its starting quarterback, as I thought was the best course of action here.

So, the market will lean towards Alabama going over this number. For the team to get to nine wins, the team must win seven of the remaining nine games to do that.

Here’s the schedule:

  • Ole Miss
  •  @ Mississippi State
  • @ Texas A&M
  • Arkansas
  • Tennessee
  • LSU
  • @ Kentucky
  • Chattanooga
  • @ Auburn

In my eyes, the team’s schedule breaks down neatly as follow: likely wins at Mississippi State, Arkansas, Tennessee, Chattanooga. However, with the questions around the team’s quarterback situation, there are questionable wins at Bryant-Denny Stadium for Ole Miss, LSU and at Texas A&M, at Kentucky and at Auburn.

If the team takes care of business in games, the Crimson Tide need to go 3-2 in its toughest games to clear this win total. The team still has a vaunted defense that was able to limit Texas’ passing game for three quarters before an ill-timed Jalen Milroe interception sent the game haywire.

Now that Saban named Milroe the starter, it does feel like some concerns may be eased in the locker room, but we’ll learn a lot about this Crimson Tide team on Saturday when a sturdy Ole Miss team comes to town. A loss that sends the team to 2-2 on the year feels like the end of the season and will be the beginning of the worst campaign for Saban with the program since his first in 2007.

However, if Alabama is able to figure out its offense and beat Ole Miss, it could be a springboard for the rest of the season and the team can still compete for 10 wins and possibly an outside path at the College Football Playoff.

This number hints at the uncertainty in Tuscaloosa right now, but it’s never been a wise bet to doubt Alabama since Saban arrived. The team has won at least 10 games in every season since 2008.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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