There are few dead-lock givens in college football. One of the few favors Alabama Football quarterback Jalen Milroe. On Saturday night in Starkville, Jalen Milroe will start his fifth college game. The given is inexperienced players perform better with true-test game experience. True test meaning, not in mop-up work, although at another level that too is beneficial to players.
Jalen Milroe will be a better player when Tennessee comes to Tuscaloosa for the Third Saturday in October than he was against Ole Miss. And he was pretty darn good against Ole Miss. After the bad decision that led to an interception, Milroe completed 9-of-11 passes. for 159 yards and a touchdown. His only glaring mistakes after the INT were not throwing the ball away a couple of times, resulting in sacks.
Player improvement does not always follow a steady upward path. So, like any less experienced player, Milroe could regress against Mississippi State or later, but the overall progression in skill development is nearly guaranteed to be seen in late October or November.
The issue for Alabama Football is it needs Milroe to steadily improve every week. Such improvement is not all on Milroe’s shoulders. It is shared by teammates and the Crimson Tide coaching staff.
Below I will explain why I believe Milroe’s development will progress at a pace and to a level consistent with team goals. First, look at quarterback stats after week four.
Alabama Football – Jalen Milroe Quarterback Stats
Two stats are used. One widely referenced one is the Passing Efficiency Rating (PER) currently led nationally by USC quarterback, Caleb Williams. The other one is Quarterback Rating (QBR), created by ESPN, which factors in all QB components, not just passing. Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. leads the FBS in QBR.
Jalen Milroe and other SEC QBs Passing Efficiency Rating
Note: The PER for Caleb Williams is 223.07
- Jayden Daniels (LSU) No. 8 in the FBS – 189.08
- Brady Cook (Missouri) No. 10 – 185.23
- Jalen Milroe (Alabama) No. 16 – 173.36
- Jaxson Dart (Ole Miss) No. 21 – 171.03
- Spencer Rattler (South Carolina) No. 22 – 170.65
- Carson Beck (Georgia) No. 25 – 164.26
- KJ Jefferson (Arkansas) No. 27 – 163.71
- Graham Mertz (Florida) No. 29 – 162.11
- Conner Weigman (Texas A&M) No. 33 – 156.84
- Devin Leary (Kentucky) No. 46 – 147.76
- Will Rogers (Mississippi State) No. 56 – 142.65
- Joe Milton (Tennessee) No. 58 – 142.27
- Payton Thorne (Auburn) No. 72 – 137.77
- AJ Swann (Vanderbilt) No. 83 – 129.28
Note: Often-mentioned Heisman contender QBs are below Jalen Milroe. Quinn Ewers is No. 23, Shedeur Sanders is No. 24, Jordan Travis is No. 31 and Drake Maye is No. 37
Jalen Milroe and other SEC QBs – QBR
Note: The QBR for Michael Penix Jr. is 93.7
- Conner Weighman (Texas A&M) No. 4 – 87.8
- Spencer Rattler (South Carolina) No. 12 – 83
- Jayden Daniels (LSU) No. 13 – 82.8
- Jaxson Dart (Ole Miss) No. 14 – 82.4
- Carson Beck (Georgia) No. 33 – 74.8
- Brady Cook (Missouri( No. 35 – 73.7
- Jalen Milroe (Alabama) No. 40 – 71.7
- Graham Mertz (Florida) No. 47 – 66.3
- KJ Jefferson (Arkansas) No. 53 – 63.4
- Joe Milton (Tennessee) No. 63 – 59.2
- Payton Thorne (Auburn) No. 65 – 57.6
- Devin Leary (Kentucky) No. 83 – 49.5
- Will Rogers (Mississippi State ) No. 89 – 48.1
- AJ Swann (Vanderbilt) No. 117 – 34.3
What conclusions can be drawn from the stats? One is it will be a couple of more weeks before they are not limited by too few games. The other is that Milroe is not the only inexperienced starter who can be expected to improve. Georgia’s Carson Beck is another. Also, new schemes from new OCs take time for teams to adjust. No doubt that has affected the performance of Mississippi State and Will Rogers.
As I stated above, my expectation is Jalen Milroe’s production and efficiency will improve. Perhaps even better for Alabama Football is with Conner Weigman likely out for two to four weeks, the Alabama football defense will not face the combination of a top QB and a strong offense until the LSU game. By then Jalen Milroe can be a much-improved QB.