Alabama Football: Computers don’t buy Tide and SEC is down

For weeks Alabama football fans have been enjoying the love the Crimson Tide gets from computer ranking algorithms. This week the Crimson Tide lost a bit of ground in one of the two computer rankings we follow. But even with the small slide, the computers rate the Crimson Tide much higher than the traditional AP and Coaches polls.

It was the Sagarin Ratings that calculated the Crimson Tide at No. 3, rather than at No.1 as Alabama was last week. Alabama held steady in the ESPN FPI at No. 3.

Overall the two computer rankings rate SEC teams higher than do the AP and Coaches polls. The Sagarin Rating has six SEC teams in the top 15, with Alabama at No.3 and Georgia at No. 5 leading the way for the SEC.

ESPN’s FPI has six SEC teams in the top 17 of FBS teams. Alabama at No. 3, is followed by Georgia at No. 4.

More detailed ranking information is provided at the bottom of this post.

What about Alabama Football and Championships?

ESPN Analytics is the source for Alabama Football’s championship chances. Only two SEC teams have greater than a 4.1% chance to win the SEC Championship. Ole Miss is at the 4.1%. Georgia is favored at 47.5% and Alabama is favored at 43.8%.

ESPN is not as bullish on the Crimson Tide’s CFB Playoff chances. Alabama is given a 29.6% chance to make the Playoffs. Five teams are above the Crimson Tide; Oklahoma at 71.3%, Ohio State at 52.4%, Georgia at 41.5%, Oregon at 40%, and Texas at 32.1%.

Jeff Sagarin Ratings – Top 15 and SEC Teams

• No. 1 Michigan Wolverines
• No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes
• No. 3 Alabama Crimson Tide
• No. 4 Oklahoma Sooners
• No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs
• No. 6 Penn State Nittany Lions
• No. 7 Texas Longhorns
• No. 8 Oregon Ducks
• No. 9 Washington Huskies
• No. 10 Tennessee Vols
• No. 11 Florida State Seminoles
• No. 12 Ole Miss Rebels
• No. 13 Southern Cal Trojans
• No. 14 Texas A&M Aggies
• No. 15 LSU Bengal Tigers
• No. 32 Auburn Tigers
• No. 34 Arkansas Razorbacks
• No. 37 South Carolina Gamecocks
• No. 39 Kentucky Wildcats
• No. 41 Florida Gators
• No. 44 Missouri Tigers
• No. 54 Mississippi State Bulldogs
• No. 118 Vanderbilt Commodores

ESPN FPI Top 17 and SEC Teams

• No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes
• No. 2 Oklahoma Sooners
• No. 3 Alabama Crimson Tide
• No. 4 Georgia Bulldogs
• No. 5 Oregon Ducks
• No. 6 Texas Longhorns
• No. 7 Penn State Nittany Lions
• No. 8 Michigan Wolverines
• No. 9 Washington Huskies
• No. 10 Florida State Seminoles
• No. 11 Ole Miss Rebels
• No. 12 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
• No. 13 Southern Cal Trojans
• No. 14 LSU Bengal Tigers
• No. 15 Texas A&M Aggies
• No. 16 North Carolina Tar Heels
• No. 17 Tennessee Vols
• No. 29 Auburn Tigers
• No. 32 Arkansas Razorbacks
• No. 34 Florida Gators
• No. 36 South Carolina Gamecocks
• No. 37 Missouri Tigers
• No. 38 Kentucky Wildcats
• No. 50 Mississippi State Bulldogs
• No. 103 Vanderbilt Commodores

One ranking the computers get right compared to the traditional polls is not having USC as a Top Ten team. I’m not convinced the Trojans are a Top 15 team.