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Alabama Football: Peering into the season’s second half via ESPN Analytics

By Ronald Evans

Sep 9, 2023; Tuscaloosa, Alabama, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide head coach Nick Saban cheers on his players before their game against the Texas Longhorns at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 9, 2023; Tuscaloosa, Alabama, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide head coach Nick Saban cheers on his players before their game against the Texas Longhorns at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports /
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Halfway into Alabama Football’s 2023 regular season, Crimson Tide fans have had their fill of surprises. Many of us, maybe most of us, believed that even with an unsettled quarterback situation, 2023 was going to be a Restoration season for the Alabama Football Dynasty.

Instead, we watched a loss to Texas, followed by a meltdown in Tampa, against USF. Now that the Crimson Tide has clawed its way back to a respectable 5-1, championship aspirations have returned. Since the USF game, Alabama has improved significantly at quarterback. The offensive line has shown enough progress, to believe it will continue to improve. The Alabama defense and special teams have been outstanding.

Unlike the 2021 and 2022 seasons, Crimson Tide fans are praising a Defensive Coordinator. Kevin Steele appears to be engineering a defense that is rapidly becoming one of college football’s best. Based on the Texas A&M game, there are seeds of confidence in Tommy Rees.

With a rapidly improving Jalen Milroe, the only glaring weaknesses for Alabama are the running game and the frequency of unforced mental errors resulting in penalties.

Nick Saban says the problems are fixable and, of course, he should be believed.

Barring major injuries, Alabama Football will be favored in its next six games. The ESPN Analytics calculations provide predictions on the Crimson Tide’s win chances for the rest of the regular season.

ESPN Alabama Football Game Predictions

Current win chances are compared to the percentages after week five of the season.

  • Alabama vs. Arkansas – 89.7% chance to win (down from 90.4%)
  • Alabama vs. Tennessee – 80.2% chance to win (up from 79.8%)
  • Alabama vs. LSU – 70.4% chance to win (down from 74.4%)
  • Alabama vs. Kentucky – 84.2% chance to win (down from 86.6%)
  • Alabama vs. Chattanooga – 99% chance to win (no change)
  • Alabama vs. Auburn – 82.9% chance to win (up from 81.7%)

ESPN also gives the Alabama Crimson Tide an 82.5% chance to win the SEC West and a 43.9% chance to win the SEC Championship Game.

The Crimson Tide’s path to a CFB Playoff berth is far from assured but the path is clear. Alabama must win out to make the Playoffs. ESPN’s Allstate Playoff Predictor has the Crimson Tide’s Playoff chances at 30%. That number provides little comfort for Alabama football fans, but only five other teams have a higher percentage chance. They are Texas at 32%, Oregon at 40%, Georgia at 42%, Ohio State at 52% and Oklahoma at 71%.

ESPN lists only 14 teams with Playoff chances. Seven of the teams with lower predicted chances than Alabama are currently undefeated teams.

Next. Bama defenders were door-slammers against the Aggies.. dark

Alabama Football has come a long way since that late September afternoon in Tampa. And the Crimson Tide has a long way to go, with nothing in front easy, except beating Chattanooga.

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