Alabama Football: Crimson Tide ‘bloom’ fades in computer ratings

Alabama football fans have been enjoying love for the Crimson Tide through computer ranking algorithms. Last week the Crimson Tide lost some ground in the two main computer polls. Even more was lost this week after the Tide’s closer than expected result against Arkansas.

But even with the two-week slide, the computers continue to rate the Alabama Crimson Tide higher than the traditional AP and Coaches polls.

The current Sagarin Ratings has six SEC teams in the top 16, with Alabama Football at No.5 and Georgia at No. 6 leading the way for the SEC.

ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) again has six SEC teams in the top 17 of FBS teams. Alabama moved from No. 3 to No. 7. The Georgia Bulldogs dropped from No. 4 to No. 8.

More detailed ranking information from both computer algorithms is provided at the bottom of this post.

What about Alabama Football and Championships?

Based upon ESPN Analytics, Alabama Football’s championship chances are lower than last week, but the dip was small. Last week Alabama was given a 43.8% chance to win the SEC Championship. The number moved to 42.9% this week but is higher than any other SEC team.

Georgia is favored to become the SEC Champion at 41.8% and way behind the SEC’s two top teams are LSU at 8.2% and Tennessee at 3.8%.

ESPN remained cool on the Crimson Tide’s CFB Playoff chances, with Alabama going from a 29.6% chance to make the Playoffs to 25.6%. Last week five teams had higher Playoff chances than the Crimson Tide. This week eight teams are ranked above Alabama, including Georgia (30.4%) and Texas (27.2%).

Jeff Sagarin Ratings – Top 15 and SEC Teams

• No. 1 – Michigan Wolverines
• No. 2 – Ohio State Buckeyes
• No. 3 – Oklahoma Sooners
• No. 4 – Penn State Nittany Lions
• No. 5 – Alabama Crimson Tide
• No. 6 – Georgia Bulldogs
• No. 7 – Texas Longhorns
• No. 8 – Oregon Ducks
• No. 9 – Washington Huskies
• No. 10 – Florida State Seminoles
• No. 11 – LSU Bengal Tigers
• No. 12 – Notre Dame Fighting Irish
• No. 13 – Tennessee Vols
• No. 14 – Ole Miss Rebels
• No. 15 – Kansas State Wildcats
• No. 16 -Texas A&M Aggies
• No. 28 – Arkansas Razorbacks
• No. 37 – Missouri Tigers
• No. 39 – Florida Gators
• No. 40 – South Carolina Gamecocks
• No. 42 – Auburn Tigers
• No. 47 – Kentucky Wildcats
• No. 52 – Mississippi State Bulldogs
• No. 110 – Vanderbilt Commodores

ESPN FPI Top 15 and SEC Teams

• No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes
• No. 2 Oklahoma Sooners
• No. 3 Penn State Nittany Lions
• No. 4 Michigan Wolverines
• No. 5 Texas Longhorns
• No. 6 Oregon Ducks
• No. 7 Alabama Crimson Tide
• No. 8 Georgia Bulldogs
• No. 9 Florida State Seminoles
• No. 10 Washington Huskies
• No. 11 LSU Bengal Tigers
• No. 12 Ole Miss Rebels
• No. 13 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
• No. 14 North Carolina Tar Heels
• No. 15 Southern Cal Trojans
• No. 16 Tennessee Vols
• No. 17 Texas A&M Aggies
• No. 27 Missouri Tigers
• No. 31 Arkansas Razorbacks
• No. 37 Auburn Tigers
• No. 38 South Carolina Gamecocks
• No. 43 Kentucky Wildcats
• No. 48 Mississippi State Bulldogs
• No. 101 Vanderbilt Commodores

Washington fans will rightly question why the Huskies are ranked lower than the Ducks. However, the FPI is designed to be predictive of the end of the regular season.