Alabama Football: How many points needed to beat LSU?

Alabama Football’s improving defense will take on college football’s highest-scoring offense, led by LSU QB, Jayden Daniels. The Bengal Tigers are No.1 in FBS teams with a scoring average of 47.4 points per game.

The Crimson Tide will counter with the No. 15 Scoring Defense, allowing an average of 16.4 points per game.

Let’s take a closer look at the details of LSU’s points production. The Bengal Tigers scored 72 points against Grambling State in week two and 62 points last week against Army. Throw away the Army stats as useless, and LSU, in its most recent five games before playing the Black Knights, scored an average of 44.2 points.

In the Crimson Tide’s last five games, Alabama’s defense has allowed an average of 17.6 points. One way to consider how much below 44.2 points Alabama will allow against LSU is to review the Tide’s defensive effectiveness in recent games.

In SEC games, against Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Texas A&M, Arkansas, and Tennessee, only once has the Crimson Tide not held its opponent below the opponent’s scoring average.

Alabama Football Scoring Defense – Last Five Games

• Ole Miss – Scoring Average vs. SEC teams; 30 points – Against Alabama, 10 points
• Mississippi State Average vs. SEC teams; 17 points – Against Alabama, 17 points
• Texas A&M Average vs. SEC teams; 23.5 points – Against Alabama, 20 points
• Arkansas Average vs. SEC teams; 19.4 points – Against Alabama, 21 points
• Tennessee Average vs. SEC teams; 24.3 points – Against Alabama, 20 points

Two more data points might be worthwhile to consider. Take away the games Ole Miss and Tennessee played against Alabama and their SEC scoring averages are 36.7 points (Ole Miss) and 25.7 points (UT). This means the Alabama Crimson Tide held Tennessee about 22% below its scoring average. The same comparison for the Ole Miss game shows Alabama held the Rebels over 70% below their scoring average.

From the numbers above, a projection as to how much Alabama will hold down LSU’s scoring must be made by inference, with no calculated degree of certainty.

LSU’s SEC scoring average of 44.2 points came against the No. 52, No. 55, No. 56, No. 59, and No. 72 Scoring Defenses in college football. No sound judgment can be made that LSU will come close to 44.2 points against Alabama’s No. 15 Scoring Defense, especially when considering the impact the Bryant-Denny crowd will have on the game.

Based on the Tide’s previous performances against SEC teams, the most generous guess for LSU’s scoring is in the low to mid-30s. It is conceivable LSU will not score more than 24-28 points.

Note: Stats provided by cfbstats.com and Sports Reference

Can Alabama Football score 28-35 points, as needed to beat LSU? A short answer is yes. More detail as to why will be provided in a later post.