Alabama Football: What favors Bama outweighs what favors LSU

What Saturday night will be for Alabama Football is an important game. Getting to Atlanta, and a Playoff berth hang in the balance. What it is not likely to be is one of the epic ‘Game of the Century’ games pitting the Crimson Tide and the Bengal Tigers.

An LSU upset will not propel LSU to ‘Contender’ CFB Playoff status. A win for Alabama would quickly become another of the ‘must wins’ the Tide has had since losing to Texas, with four more ‘musts’ still to go.

The game will be a statement opportunity for both programs. Alabama football fans would be able to again chide a college football world with an unquenchable desire to write off the Crimson Tide. With an upset, LSU fans could turn two straight wins into a dominance claim.

Certainly, LSU is good enough to win. Nationally, many college football pundits are picking the Bengal Tigers. The problem with such picks is they mistake one team’s flash as enough to make up for the same team’s glaring weakness. According to ESPN Analytics, LSU’s Offense Efficiency is No. 1 among all FBS teams. As Lincoln Riley’s coaching career has shown, offensive sizzle is not enough, without a solid defense. The LSU defense is far from solid. ESPN ranks LSU’s Defense Efficiency at No. 90.

ESPN Analytics – Alabama Football

Alabama Football counters with efficiencies of No. 6, defensively, and No. 35 offensively. Add to the comparison that Alabama’s Special Teams Efficiency is No. 26 and LSU’s is No. 116.

Unless ESPN’s algorithm is a muddled mess of mumbo-jumbo, Alabama has a better team than LSU. In big games, better teams playing at home do not often lose.

Let’s look at it another way, without relying on numbers or stats.

LSU Advantages

• The Bengal Tigers have Jayden Daniels at QB. Daniels is tremendous, reading defenses, running, and throwing. Saturday night will be his 52nd college football game. At Arizona State and LSU, Daniels started in all 52 games.
• LSU has two explosive receivers in Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas, along with a powerful running back in Logan Diggs.
• The Bengal Tigers have a few high-level defenders, especially Harold Perkins, who is as Nick Saban describes, “a phenomenal player.”
• Brian Kelly is a good coach and has been a proven winner everywhere he has coached.

Alabama Advantages

• Except at quarterback and wide receiver, the Crimson Tide has more talent and depth in every other position group.
• In all but one game, LSU has not faced a defense as good as Alabama’s – not even close. The best defense LSU has played belongs to FSU and the Bengal Tigers lost. The Seminoles are good defensively. Alabama is better.
• Even though Tennessee’s been dispensed with, the Tide’s revenge reservoir is still full. Payback is a powerful motivator and it is all on Bama’s side.
• Brian Kelly is very good, but he is no Nick Saban. The GOAT and the Alabama football staff have been preparing for this game for months.
• An Alabama football crowd seeking vengeance on a Saturday night in Bryant-Denny.

Four advantages for LSU and five advantages for the Crimson Tide. And the Tide’s advantages significantly outweigh those of LSU.