2025 12-team College Football Playoff prediction after Week 4: Big, Big 12 shakeup

Six of the top 10 teams in the country were idle in Week 4, but that doesn’t mean there weren’t significant College Football Playoff implications all over the country. We had multiple de facto elimination games, and what could have been a Big 12 Title Game preview out in Salt Lake City. Still, with Ohio State, Penn State, Georgia, Texas A&M, and even Alabama all on bye weeks, there wasn’t a massive shake-up in my 12-team College Football Playoff prediction. 

The biggest movement came from the Big 12 and Big Ten. Out in Salt Lake, Texas Tech proved that it spent billionaire oil baron Cody Campbell’s money well, dominating Utah 34-10. The Red Raiders added four starting defensive linemen from the transfer portal this offseason, and that group got the best of a stout Utah offensive line to the tune of a 25 percent pressure rate on QB Devon Dampier with just three blitzes all game. 

With that defensive front, Texas Tech looks poised to run the table in the Big 12, and I’m forced to back off the Utes, which were riding high with a 3-0 start and a revamped offense. It’s not all sunshine and rainbows for Joey McGuire’s program, however, because Texas Tech lost its quarterback, Behren Morton, and could have a brewing QB controversy after Will Hammond went 13-for-16 for 169 yards and two touchdowns in relief. 

In the Big Ten, we’re starting to get some clarity about the second-tier contenders. There’s still an obvious big three between Penn State, Ohio State, and Oregon, but it feels increasingly indisputable that Indiana is the fourth-best team in the conference after its 63-10 drubbing of Illinois, which was sent tumbling from No. 9 to No. 23 in the latest AP Top 25. The Hoosiers were last year’s upstart, but after returning most of their key pieces and upgrading at quarterback with Cal transfer Fernando Mendoza, they belong back in the CFP discussion. 

While the hierarchy in other leagues is starting to crystallize, the SEC feels as murky as ever. LSU has major concerns offensively with its glaring lack of a running game, so if Oklahoma has the same issue, and after sacking Auburn QB Jackson Arnold 10 times on Saturday, an even more terrifying defense, why shouldn’t the Sooners be considered the favorite to win the conference? If Arch Manning is rounding a corner after carving up Sam Houston, will Texas grab the SEC crown? Why not Georgia or Alabama? 

Ultimately, I have more faith in the Tigers to figure it out on offense than Oklahoma or Texas, but that’s waning. A week from now, I could be elevating the winner of Alabama’s Week 5 showdown with Georgia to the SEC Champion spot in the CFP. Plus, we could have a new Big Ten favorite with Penn State and Oregon squaring off in Happy Valley. For now, here’s where we stand.