2025 Week 1 12-team College Football Playoff Prediction: Alabama on the brink

Alabama wasn’t the only top 10 team to go down in Week 1 of the 2025 season, but the No. 8 Crimson Tide were the only one to lose to an opponent ranked outside the top 10. With No. 3 Ohio State downing No. 1 Texas, No. 9 LSU besting No. 4 Clemson, and No. 10 Miami escaping a fourth-quarter comeback attempt from No. 6 Notre Dame, the worst loss of the week easily goes to Kalen DeBoer’s Crimson Tide. 

Now, through one game of his second season in Tuscaloosa, DeBoer has already racked up five losses, all coming in his most recent 10 games with four coming against unranked opponents as a significant favorite. There is still a path to the College Football Playoff for the Crimson Tide, but it took just one game for Alabama and DeBoer’s tenure leading the program, appear to be on the brink of catastrophe. 

I came into the week, predicting Alabama as the SEC champions and No. 1 seed in the CFP, believing that with 14 returning starters, redshirt junior quarterback Ty Simpson wouldn’t need to be a superhero for the Tide to win big. I leave Week 1, questioning the coaching staff and believing that DeBoer and offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb need a whole lot more than just a game manager to eek out an at-large bid. 

I won’t overreact and drop Alabama out of the CFP, though that would be completely justifiable after a two-score loss to a team that won two games last season, and another inexcusable road loss for DeBoer. However, I’ll trust that the Tide will improve as they get healthier, and that if the coaching staff pulls the ripcord on Simpson and starts five-star freshman Keelon Russell at some point this season, the ceiling on the offense completely changes. 

As for the rest of the landscape, no unit looked better than Ohio State’s defense in Week 1, stifling Arch Manning and the Longhorns in a 14-7 win. However, I’ll stick with Penn State as my Big Ten champs and trust the Nittany Lions’ veteran quarterback Drew Allar, who led the Nittany Lions to a 46-11 win over Nevada. 

In the SEC, if I can’t keep the Tide at the top, I’ll pivot to Texas. Though Manning was far from perfect in Week 1, he showed flashes against the defending national champions in his first road start, and the Longhorns have a favorable regular season schedule. Who will Texas meet in Atlanta? For now, I’ll say LSU. The money the Tigers freed up after losing out on Bryce Underwood appears to have overhauled their secondary and Brian Kelly finally got a Week 1 win as the head coach in Baton Rouge, besting Clemson 17-10 in Death Valley (Jr.). 

Though Dabo Swinney’s Tigers lost, it was merely a non-conference bout. I still have Clemson winning the ACC, even after Miami’s impressive 27-24 win over Notre Dame on Sunday night. Mario Cristobal’s conservative game-management almost cost him in Week 1, and it will at some point this season. The Canes are in, but with an at-large. 

Here’s a look at my full 12-team College Football Playoff prediction after Week 1: