Alabama ran through an absolute gauntlet for eight straight wins, but the reality of playing in the SEC is that there are too many losable games on your conference schedule for you to trip up in the non-conference.
If Saturday’s 23-21 loss to Oklahoma was the Crimson Tide’s first of the year, Kalen DeBoer’s team would still be perfectly positioned to secure a first-round bye in the College Football Playoff. However, with a Florida State loss on its ledger, the Iron Bowl is a must-win game for two-loss Alabama to even make the CFP.
I’m keeping the Crimson Tide in at No. 7 for my CFP prediction. Alabama has too many quality wins to be kept out with two losses. So, assuming the Tide win out, which feels like a safe assumption, they’ll be heading on the road in the first round. That can still change, however, because Alabama controls its own destiny to get to the SEC Championship Game.
SEC Championship scenarios
It’s not quite as complicated as the ACC Championship scenarios, but the SEC Title game path is messy. If Texas A&M and Alabama both win out, they’ll meet in Atlanta. However, if Texas A&M loses to Texas in Austin in Week 14, then Georgia will play Alabama, and that’s what I’m predicting here.
Here’s how I see it playing out. Texas A&M loses to Texas, misses the SEC Title Game, but finishes with one loss. Alabama and Georgia meet in Atlanta, Georgia avenges its early-season loss to claim the No. 2 seed, and then, with three losses but a trip to the SEC Championship, Alabama settles at No. 7, the highest-ranked two-loss team in the CFP field, ahead of Oklahoma, but behind the Aggies and Ole Miss.
Alabama has had Georgia's number, but Kirby Smart's Dawgs have improved each week and now appear to be one of the scariest national title contenders in the country. A young offensive line is finally gelling together in Athens, giving Mike Bobo the run game he desperately needed to take pressure off Gunner Stockton. Plus, with a rebuilt wide receiver room, Stockton is playing about as well as any QB in the country.
Defensively, Georgia's biggest weakness has been the pass rush, but the Dawgs managed to sack Arch Manning three times in a dominant 35-10 win on Saturday. Smart and Glenn Schumann are using more stunts and games, rather than relying on the dominant four-man pass rush that they've had in the past, and without a reliable run game, Alabama won't be able to slow them down.
Are the at-large bids already settled?
Elsewhere, the at-large bids seem to be largely already determined. The loser of the Big Ten Championship Game between Ohio State and Indiana will get one of the first-round byes. So, with the Big 12 and ACC as one-bid leagues, and Notre Dame locked into the field after its win over No. 22 Pitt on Saturday, the SEC will gobble up five at-large spots, and three-loss Texas will just miss the field.
ACC Champion?
As for the ACC, the outlandish doomsday scenario where Duke wins the conference title and misses the CFP is off the table with Virginia’s win over the Blue Devils on Saturday. However, that doesn’t mean the ACC doesn’t have major problems. Miami is the league’s best and highest-ranked team, but has almost no path to Charlotte, so with Georgia Tech’s defense falling apart, I’ll begrudgingly give the nod to Virginia.
We won’t walk through all the tiebreakers, but with only one ACC loss, Virginia, Georgia Tech, SMU, and Pitt are all still alive.
1. Ohio State, Big Ten Champion
2. Georgia, SEC Champion
3. Indiana, At-large
4. Texas Tech, Big 12 Champion
5. Texas, A&M, At-large
6. Ole Miss, At-large
7. Alabama, At-large
8. Oregon, At-large
9. Oklahoma, At-large
10. Notre Dame, At-large
11. Virginia, ACC Champion
12. James Madison, Sun Belt Champion