2025 Week 6 12-team College Football Playoff prediction: Penn State and Texas tumble

In 2024, Alabama ascended to the No. 1 spot in the country with an SEC-opening win over Georgia. The Crimson Tide looked like the national title favorites in Kalen DeBoer’s first year, and then everything unraveled a week later in Nashville. Diego Pavia became a legendary Alabama villain, and the Tide missed the CFP. 

Now, in 2025, coming off an SEC-opening win over Georgia, Pavia and the Commodores came to Tuscaloosa on Saturday, and Ty Simpson didn’t let the Tide make the same mistake twice. Alabama’s run defense played the best it has against a mobile quarterback under Kane Wommack, and Jam Miller ran for 100 yards in his second game back from injury. 

If DeBoer and Ryan Grubb have finally given Simpson a run game, then Alabama is the scariest offensive team in the entire country. I picked Alabama to win it all before the season, and while six weeks in, it’s clear that Ohio State, Miami, and Oregon are the three best teams in the country, I’d argue that Alabama is the easy pick for No. 4. 

The Tide will remain slotted as the SEC Champion, with Ohio State further cementing itself as the Big Ten favorite. Redshirt freshman quarterback Julian Sayin played the best game of his young career against Minnesota on Saturday, pushing the ball downfield and fully weaponizing Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate. If Ryan Day has finally paired an explosive offense with the best defense in the country, the Buckeyes can absolutely repeat as national champions. 

The biggest surprise of Week 6 was not Alabama handling its business, Sayin’s breakout, or even Miami’s impressive road win over Florida State. By far, it was the losses by Penn State and Texas. The Nittany Lions fell on the road at UCLA, a winless team that had not led a game at any point this season prior to Saturday. UCLA had a first-time play-caller on offense, an interim head coach, and became the first 0-4 team to beat an AP Top 10 team since 1985. 

Texas was also on the road, down in The Swamp, and Arch Manning may have just saved Billy Napier’s job. Manning threw two interceptions, held onto the ball far too long, took bad sacks, and just generally struggled, again. The worst part, though, was that the defense, which was supposed to be one of the best in the country, couldn’t stop DJ Lagway, who had his best game of the season. 

Through six weeks, preseason No.1 Texas, No. 2 Penn State, and No. 4 Clemson have one combined win over a Power 4 opponent, and it came against North Carolina, probably the worst Power Conference team in the country. 

The Nittany Lions are done, and I’m tempted to cross the Longhorns off my list of contenders, but there aren’t enough teams that have separated themselves in the SEC yet. Here’s how I’d power rank the jumbled mess at the top of the conference: 1. Alabama 2. Georgia 3. Texas A&M 4. Oklahoma 5. Ole Miss 6. Tennessee 7. Texas 8. Missouri 9. Vanderbilt 10. LSU

However, based on Oklahoma’s difficult schedule and John Mateer’s hand injury, I see Ole Miss, Tennessee, and even Missouri as more likely to make the CFP. Ole Miss has a favorable schedule the rest of the way, and while that hasn’t stopped Kiffin from tripping up before, I’ll add the Rebels and the Volunteers to this week’s prediction.