3 crucial stats that have to improve for Alabama to be March Madness contenders

If Alabama wants to make a March Madness run, these key stats will have to continue improving.
David Leong-Imagn Images

Alabama is beginning to look the part of a team that can make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament.

Wednesday night's 100-75 win over Mississippi State was the seventh straight victory, moving the Crimson Tide to 21-7 overall and 11-4 in the SEC. While Nate Oats might stop short of saying his team is peaking right now, they've certainly been playing better basketball than the stretch that saw them lose four of seven games, including an embarrassing blowout defeat at the hands of Florida in Gainesville.

But there's still plenty of work to be done. Even the most ardent of Alabama supporters would call this team flawed, but that's what makes them so endearing to watch. They're far from perfect, but they've learned to fight, scrap, and claw, to do whatever it takes to win games.

That's a trend that will need to carry over into next month, along with the continued improvement of a few key statistics.

Alabama must improve these 3 stats in order to make another deep NCAA Tournament run

1. Defensive efficiency

Alabama has been a second weekend NCAA Tournament mainstay under Oats. The Crimson Tide has made at least the Sweet 16 in four of the last five tournaments, including three straight. And Alabama has made it to at least the Elite Eight in back-to-back trips.

In order for that trend to continue, Alabama must maintain attention to detail on the defensive end. That detail allowed it to completely shut down Mississippi State star guard Josh Hubbard (11 points, 4-of-13 shooting) on Wednesday night.

Overall, however, Alabama ranks just 65th in KenPom's defensive efficiency metric. That's a mark that does not lend itself to making Alabama a legitimate title contender. No national champion in the KenPom era (since 1997) has finished outside of the Top 25 in defensive efficiency.

That doesn't mean Alabama can't make a run, however; the Crimson Tide's lone Final Four in program history came two years ago with a defense that finished sub-100 in that metric.

But with so many elite two-way teams this year, making it to Indianapolis this year is difficult to imagine unless that metric drastically improves.

2. Forcing Turnovers

This has been Oats's best team in Tuscaloosa in terms of taking care of the basketball, but part of its defensive shortcomings comes from an inability to force opponents into turnovers. That has been an issue for many recent Oats teams, and this one is no different.

Alabama ranks 363rd (out of 364 teams) in defensive turnover rate. Alabama is 253rd in steal percentage. They simply do not pressure the basketball well enough, and don't force enough mistakes.

That can limit the offense's effectiveness, too, especially against aggressive and physical defenses like Florida and Tennessee in the SEC, and all the legitimate contenders Alabama could see in its path to the Final Four.

3. Rebounding

Oats has harped on Alabama's rebounding all year long, and while they have certainly shown improvement in that area over the last few weeks, more will be required in March.

Getting bludgeoned on the boards has been a consistent theme in Alabama's losses this year. The Crimson Tide ranks 259th in the country in allowing an offensive rebounding percentage of 32.1%. The top six teams in KenPom - Duke, Michigan, Arizona, Illinois, Florida, and Houston - all rank in the Top 25 in offensive rebounding rate.

So even if Alabama's defense continues to improve, it won't matter much against the elite opponents standing in its path if it can't rebound at a higher rate.

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