Alabama football has big goals for the 2025 season. It fancies itself as a serious National Championship contender, even with a new QB and coming off a disappointing - by Crimson Tide standards - 2024 season.
A serious title contender cannot lose, even on the road, to a Florida State team that won just two games last season and lacks any semblance of continuity.
Saturday's matchup in Tallahassee is vital for Kalen DeBoer and Alabama. The perception of the program, recovering, albeit still dented from a year ago, would be further harmed. The fanbase, which has cautiously come around on their second-year head coach thanks to an extremely positive offseason, would jump off the bandwagon, perhaps for good, if Alabama succumbs to a fourth upset as a double-digit favorite under his short watch.
Being a non-conference game in late August, there will be plenty of time for Alabama to recover if things go south. But DeBoer's perception within the Tuscaloosa faithful may be irrevocably harmed, regardless of how the rest of the season plays out.
To avoid the nuclear scenarios, here's what Alabama must do to walk out of Tallahassee with a victory.
Alabama's keys to victory against Florida State
1. Contain Tommy Castellanos
It's not exactly a secret that with Gus Malzahn coaching the offense, and with Tommy Castellanos' history as a runner, getting Castellanos outside of the pocket so he can make plays with his legs will be a major focal point of the Florida State gameplan on Saturday.
Alabama struggled mightily to stop Oklahoma's Jackson Arnold last November on designed QB runs. Vanderbilt's Diego Pavia also hit some key scrambles to extend drives. Florida State's best hope in this game is that Kane Wommack learned nothing from those matchups and Alabama is still ill-equipped to handle a dual-threat QB.
Containing Castellanos and the FSU running game just got a little more challenging for the Crimson Tide with the news on Wednesday that senior nose tackle Tim Keenan will miss the game. That makes Alabama smaller up front, and while the Seminoles' offensive line doesn't have any games together under their belt, the individuals are as experienced as any group in the country.
Florida State has talented receivers, but I do not believe Castellanos can win this game with his arm against Alabama's elite secondary. The trick will be forcing him to try.
2. Win the turnover margin
With the weather expected to be a factor in Tallahassee, taking care of the football will be paramount to both teams finding success. Turnovers were a problem for Alabama last season. At QB alone, Jalen Milroe turned it over 18 times. They need Ty Simpson to take care of the football, no matter the conditions.
Alabama still finished last season with a positive turnover margin despite a turnover-prone offense. That was thanks to a defense that was frequently opportunistic. With more talent and depth on the defense this season, they could be even better at forcing turnovers.
Wommack's Swarm Defense is supposed to specialize in creating havoc plays and forcing turnovers. If they can do that in game one, it could help Alabama build a comfortable lead.
3. Run the football effectively
Alabama was inconsistent, to say the least, in running the football last season. Outside of Jalen Milroe's explosive play ability with his legs, it was a struggle for most of the season. That will need to change immediately for this team to reach its goals.
With Simpson making his first career start and in an expected driving rainstorm, it will be critical that he is able to rely on a steady running game to help move the football.
Unfortunately, Alabama is already down its starting RB for this game. Jam Miller suffered a dislocated collarbone in the Tide's final scrimmage of fall camp. He's expected to be out until the Georgia game.
With Miller out, Alabama will turn to three guys: Richard Young, Daniel Hill, and Louisiana transfer Dre Washington. Young and Hill are the more talented of the trio, but Washington is the only one with a lot of game experience under his belt.
Someone in that room will need to emerge. And Alabama's offensive line will need to live up to the preseason hype and give the backs the room to operate so the outcome doesn't have to fall entirely on Simpson's shoulders.