Most experts don't expect Alabama to get back to the College Football Playoff in Kalen DeBoer's third season as the Crimson Tide's head coach. With a young roster and a difficult schedule, expectations are tempered nationally, and for the first time in a long time, Alabama is legitimately flying under the radar.
That's not necessarily a bad thing. It's just a weird thing. DeBoer knows Alabama has to "prove it" in order to get the respect they feel they deserve.
Part of proving it will be avoiding losses to teams they shouldn't lose to. That's plagued DeBoer's first couple of seasons in Tuscaloosa. That's led to the bulk of the criticism because, unfortunately for DeBoer, Nick Saban rarely lost those games.
In year one, Alabama fell on the road to Vanderbilt a week after knocking off No. 1 Georgia. Later in the year, they lost on the road to Oklahoma. Those two teams were both 6-6 in the regular season, and those defeats ultimately cost the Crimson Tide a playoff spot.
Last year, Alabama dropped the opener to a mediocre Florida State team. While the Tide rallied and ultimately made the College Football Playoff despite that loss, they removed any margin for error they had before the calendar had even flipped to September.
In 2026, Alabama's schedule is difficult enough already. They cannot afford to slip up in any of these three games:
3 upset opportunities that Kalen DeBoer must avoid for Alabama's CFP hopes
1. at Kentucky - September 12
After a tune-up game against East Carolina at home to start the season, Alabama travels to Lexington in Week 2 to open SEC play against a hungry Kentucky team.
Will Stein will be looking to make an early splash in his first season as the Kentucky head coach. A win over Alabama would certainly provide proof of concept for the Wildcats's faithful.
This could easily be a trap game for Alabama with Florida State looming the week after in Tuscaloosa. That's a game that the Crimson Tide certainly has circled as they look to avenge last season's loss in Tallahassee.
2. at Mississippi State - October 3
If Alabama wants to have a successful season, it's imperative that the Crimson Tide gets off to a good start. With a brutal slate of games coming in mid-October through mid-November, Alabama needs to start the season 5-0 to give itself margin for error through that difficult stretch. It could be the difference between a playoff bid and a disappointing overall season.
Heading into year three, Jeff Lebby is sorely in need of a signature win or two for the Bulldogs. Knocking off Alabama would certainly qualify. The Bulldogs nearly snuck up on both Tennessee and Texas last season. It's only a matter of time before they pull a big upset.
Dual-threat QB Kamario Taylor is a challenging player to prepare for, but DeBoer needs to have Alabama ready and not looking ahead to the next week against Georgia, or the short trip to Starkville could result in a disappointing defeat.
3. at Vanderbilt - November 14
The last trip to Nashville two years ago came with a major upset loss to Vanderbilt, the first time the Commodores beat the Crimson Tide in 40 years. Entering the final few weeks of the regular season, it's likely that Alabama will have no margin for error in terms of its playoff hopes.
After an exhausting four-game stretch against Georgia, Tennessee, Texas A&M, and LSU, Alabama will undoubtedly be beaten up and worn down heading to Nashville to face Vanderbilt. They'll need to dig deep to get this win and avoid a mid-November loss that could be devastating to their hopes of making the playoff.
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