Fresh off a massive win in Baton Rouge to put Alabama in prime College Football Playoff position, the Crimson Tide will look to avoid an upset in a big letdown spot this weekend in Nashville.
Alabama is a big favorite, but the spread has been tumbling down since opening on Sunday with Keelon Russell's uncertain status. The star QB hurt his ankle during the win against LSU, and while he stayed in the game, Kalen DeBoer called him "day to day" during his Monday press conference.
When the SEC releases the league's availability reports on Wednesday night. Russell's name could be on it. If he's unable to go, that complicates matters against a Vanderbilt team that upset a then-No. 1-ranked Crimson Tide team two years ago.
There's confidence that Austin Mack could get the job done if he's called upon, but Alabama's ability to win on the road this weekend would be greatly aided by these bold predictions coming true:
1. Alabama scores a non-offensive touchdown
With either a banged-up Russell or a backup in Mack at QB this weekend, the defense making some plays would be more than welcome.
Alabama has produced five defensive touchdowns this season, and Vandy freshman QB Jared Curtis should give them opportunities to take the ball away and then make something happen on a return.
Curtis has thrown eight interceptions this season, and Vanderbilt is -7 in turnover margin this year. Alabama's defense is elite at taking the ball away, and I expect they'll do that a couple of times on Saturday afternoon.
You also can't discount Ryan Coleman-Williams making something happen as a punt returner. He had a 32-yard return against LSU that set up the touchdown that gave the Crimson Tide a two-score lead in the fourth quarter.
2. Alabama records four or more sacks
Clark Lea and the Commodores' coaching staff know that their offensive line is at a major disadvantage this weekend. They are going to try to follow the script that produced an upset two years ago: limit the possessions, control the clock, and nickel and dime Kane Wommack's defense down the field.
They are going to try to get the ball out of Curtis' hands as quickly as possible, which could limit Alabama's opportunities to get sacks. But that only works as long as the game is tight. If Alabama can push out to a multi-score lead, Vanderbilt will have no choice but to change the gameplan and try to hunt some explosives.
That should lead to opportunities for a resurgent Alabama pass rush to make some plays in the backfield, which I think they do by getting to Curtis at least four times.
3. Trae'shawn Brown eclipses 100 rushing yards for the first time
EJ Crowell remains banged up, and with the possibility that Alabama could still play six or even seven more games after this if they make it to the SEC and National Championship games, they aren't going to rush him back on the field.
That should mean Alabama's run game centers around Trae'shawn Brown and Daniel Hill for the second week in a row. Brown earned the start last week and appears to have emerged as Alabama's RB1 at this point.
Ryan Grubb was adamant on Monday that the Crimson Tide had to get the run game fixed. This is the perfect weekend to figure it out with Russell ailing.
I think Brown has a big game, and at some point breaks the long touchdown run that he always appears to be on the precipice of doing.
I expect the freshman to have a career day in Nashville.
4. Cederian Morgan finds the endzone again
Cederian Morgan has been targeted twice this season. He's caught both passes, and both have gone for touchdowns. He scored a critical touchdown against Florida State in September that sparked the Tide's comeback.
Last week against LSU, Morgan caught a touchdown pass on a perfect ball from Russell following up Coleman-Williams' big punt return.
He still isn't getting a ton of opportunities, but it feels like that is going to change moving forward.
Grubb called the formation with Derek Meadows, and Morgan lined up on the same side that led to the touchdown intentional. They are ramping the freshman up for a bigger role down the stretch, and he's certainly earned the chance.
I think he sees his highest snap count of the season against Vanderbilt, and he pays it off with his third touchdown reception of the season.
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