Alabama heads back on the road after back-to-back home games to face its biggest challenge of the season so far. No. 16 Mississippi State awaits in Starkville, armed with a weapon of mass destruction at QB, sophomore sensation Kamario Taylor.
A win would put Alabama in tremendous shape in the College Football Playoff race. A loss would put added pressure on the Crimson Tide heading into next weekend's matchup at home against Georgia.
Every week during the season, we take a crack at bold predictions on Wednesday. Last week was agonizingly close to an excellent week, but we finished 1-of-4 again. We correctly predicted a 300+ yard, zero-turnover game for Keelon Russell. He finished with 400 yards and no turnovers, with five touchdowns for good measure.
We were so close on two others. We predicted freshman RB EJ Crowell to score on an explosive play touchdown. He broke a 39-yard run that was oh so close to going the distance, but he was tripped up.
We also predicted Noah Rogers to score his first Alabama touchdown in his Tide debut. He got on the field for one snap, catching a 36-yard pass from Russell, and was tackled at the 3-yard-line.
Frustrating, but we move on.
Here's what we have on tap for this weekend in Starkville:
1. Alabama produces 175+ yards on the ground
With the weather currently calling for some significant rainfall, Alabama's run game could take center stage. If this were last season, that would be bad news. But the Tide's offensive line has consistently opened up holes for the Alabama backs, and Crowell, Daniel Hill, and Trae'shawn Brown have formed an impressive trio.
In four games, Mississippi State hasn't allowed any opponent to eclipse 150 rushing yards on them. I think Alabama does, and I'll add to that number to make it even bolder by calling for the Crimson Tide to hit 175 or more.
With Russell getting all the media attention heading into the matchup against Taylor, I think it could actually be the coming-out party for the Tide's much-improved ground game.
2. Xavier Griffin records his first career sack
Freshman Xavier Griffin continues to see an increased workload. He played a season-high 25 snaps last week against South Carolina, splitting his time between the edge with Justin Hill and Desmond Umeozulu out and off-ball linebacker, where he was frequently used as a spy on LaNorris Sellers on third down.
I would expect Griffin to see a similar workload this week. Hill and Umeozulu remain out, and with a dual-threat QB again this week in Taylor, Griffin will be tasked with spying and tracking him down. He did an impressive job in that role last week, and I expect more of the same this week.
Either off the edge or triggering as the spy, I think Griffin gets downhill and brings down Taylor for his first career sack this week
3. Ryan Coleman-Williams finds the endzone twice. Again.
After not scoring in the first two games, Ryan Coleman-Williams has found the endzone three times in the last two games, including twice in last week's win over South Carolina. I think Alabama has a chance to exploit Mississippi State's secondary in a similar way. Even with the potential for rain, Ryan Grubb will still try to keep the Bulldogs' defense honest and hit some shots down the field.
That could open the door for Coleman-Williams to shine again. He could also make a big play on special teams, which could be pivotal in a game with bad weather.
I think the junior playmaker gets into the endzone twice again this week, playing a critical role in Alabama's offensive success.
4. Dijon Lee records his first interception of the season
Alabama fans have noticed it, so you know that Mississippi State's coaching staff has noticed it, too. Sophomore CB Dijon Lee has been exploited in each of the last two games, giving up big plays and a pair of touchdowns.
With a speedy receiving group on the other side of the field, Mississippi State will try to take advantage of getting Lee trapped in one-on-one scenarios, and Taylor will throw the ball up in what he believes is a mismatch.
I'm betting on Lee being ready for it, though. Look for him to make a big play and come down with his first interception of the season in one of those scenarios, in what could ultimately be a game-changing play for the sophomore.
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