Alabama returns home this week for a game that has been circled on everyone's calendars. The embarrassment from last season's season-opening loss in Tallahassee is at the forefront of everyone's mind this week, and this is an opportunity to officially bury it in the past.
Of course, Alabama and Florida State went on divergent paths following that Week 1 matchup in Tallahassee a year ago. The Crimson Tide rebounded to win 11 games, including an opening-round game in the College Football Playoff. The wheels fell off for FSU shortly after the upset, and they finished the year at just 5-7.
In the aftermath of that game last year, Mike Norvell appeared to have rescued himself from the hot seat and placed Kalen DeBoer squarely on it. Fast forward to now, DeBoer's job is secure after he received a contract extension in the offseason, and Norvell has already been fired but just doesn't know it yet.
Every week during the season, we release four bold predictions for Alabama. After going 1-for-4 in Week 1, we made a slight improvement in Week 2 by getting two correct. We correctly called for Alabama to rush for 150+ yards against Kentucky. They finished with 155, including Daniel Hill's first career 100-yard rushing game.
We also correctly called for the Tide's defense to produce at least two takeaways. They finished with three.
Let's take another step forward this week.
1. Alabama produces a defensive touchdown for the third straight week
Alabama has produced a pick-six in each of the first two games of the season. Neither has been from a defensive back. Yhonzae Pierre got a pick-six against East Carolina in Week 1, and then Luke Metz came up with a big one in the first quarter against Kentucky to match the one the Wildcats produced off Keelon Russell.
Let's do it again, shall we?
Alabama's defense is nasty and opportunistic. Florida State QB Ashton Daniels has been known to put the ball in harm's way. I expect him to do that this week and for the Crimson Tide to take advantage by snagging it and racing toward the endzone for a third straight week.
2. EJ Crowell produces an explosive play for a long touchdown
Hill is the RB1 for this team, and AK Dear may be back this week, but it continues to look like Alabama is gearing the freshman Crowell for a bigger role as the season goes on. He's got some explosive speed when he gets space. We saw that in the second half against Kentucky when he took a backwards pass from Russell in the flat and raced for a big play.
Crowell has scored touchdowns in each of his first two games with Alabama. He hasn't yet produced the explosive play that we know he's capable of. I think that changes this week. Florida State is probably the toughest defensive line Alabama has faced so far, so it'll be critical for Ryan Grubb to stick with the run game even if it gets stuffed some.
Alabama will keep hammering away on the ground, and as it starts to break FSU's will in the second half, Crowell is going to break free for a big play and a touchdown that ignites the Bryant-Denny Stadium faithful.
3. Keelon Russell throws for over 300 yards and doesn't turn the ball over
More important than the yardage prediction is the second part: zero turnovers. Russell turned it over three times last week against Kentucky and could have had a fourth early in the second half. He can't put the ball in jeopardy like that going forward. That's got to be the biggest area of growth for the sophomore QB.
But he should also have some opportunities to hit some throws down the field, too. Florida State's secondary has struggled in the first two games. The 'Noles rank 103rd in the country in EPA per pass, per Game on Paper, and are in the 10th percentile in explosive play rate through the air.
Russell will have the opportunity to push the ball down the field and create those explosive plays. He just needs to trust what he sees and let the ball go.
4. Ryan Coleman-Williams reaches the endzone twice
The electric junior WR hasn't found the endzone yet this season, but I think that changes on Saturday. Coleman-Williams worked hard all offseason to put last season's struggles in the rearview, and this game is likely personal for him. His issues started in Tallahassee, and he was knocked out of the game in the second half with a concussion.
After a couple of frustrating drops in the opener, Coleman-Williams bounced back for a 130-yard receiving day. Last week against Kentucky was a bit quieter for him, but he was rock solid with four catches and zero drops.
DeBoer and Grubb have seen on tape how Florida State has allowed receivers to run freely down the field. They are going to try to dial up a shot play, and Coleman-Williams is the guy for it. I think he'll produce an explosive play touchdown early in the game.
I also wouldn't put it past him to produce a punt-return touchdown. It's only a matter of time for that.
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