Alabama star right guard Michael Carroll was listed as doubtful on the Crimson Tide's first availability report of Kentucky week on Wednesday night. Reports indicate that the sophomore is dealing with a mild concussion and should be back in the lineup for next week's home game against Florida State.
But in the interim, Carroll being out is a big loss as Alabama prepares for its SEC opener on the road against Kentucky. The Wildcats are desperate for a proof-of-concept victory early in the Will Stein tenure, and they'll throw the kitchen sink at the Crimson Tide to try to get it done. Carroll's absence will likely lead ot even more aggression from their defense.
No disrespect to the folks in Lexington, but one starting offensive lineman being out for Alabama, even the very best one, should not be enough to swing this game or make it overly close. Alabama has several distinct advantages over Kentucky and holds a massive edge in talent.
Even without Carroll, I expect a multi-score victory for Alabama this weekend in Lexington. Here's why:
1. Alabama's WRs should be able to take advantage of a leaky Kentucky secondary
Kentucky was down their two projected starting cornerbacks last week against Youngstown State, and one of them should be back this weekend against Alabama, but if you flip on the tape from last week, you'll see a secondary that consistently let receivers run free. Youngstown State wasn't always able to take advantage of that. Keelon Russell and Alabama will.
Penguins QB Beau Brungard completed 23-of-35 passes for 243 yards against the Wildcats last week. Kalen DeBoer and Ryan Grubb should be licking their chops at the potential for Russell to hit some big plays to Ryan Coleman-Williams, Lotzeir Brooks, and others against a secondary that is still trying to find its footing.
2. Kentucky won't be able to count on as much YAC against Alabama's swarm defense
If you look at Kenny Minchey's stats from his first start for Kentucky last week, he had a prolific day with 301 yards and four touchdowns on 18-of-27 passing. But if you dig deeper, Minchey didn't make a ton of throws down the field. Instead, Kentucky relied on yards after catch to do the bulk of their damage.
In fact, per Game on Paper, 235 of Minchey's passing yards came after the catch, with only 63 air yards. Kentucky got the ball out of his hands quickly, dumping off passes at or near the line of scrimmage and letting their playmakers do the work in the open field.
That worked perfectly fine against Youngstown State. It won't work the same against Alabama's swarm defense. Kane Wommack has the guys at the second and third levels of his defense to fly around and make the plays in space that Youngstown couldn't.
3. Alabama may hold a significant edge on third down
Kentucky's defense struggled to get off the field and allowed Youngstown State to extend drives over and over last weekend. Allowing an FCS opponent to convert 8-of-15 third downs against you is concerning.
Perhaps more concerning than that even is that Kentucky managed just 3-of-8 on third downs against the Penguins. Now they'll face an Alabama defense that held East Carolina to 0-of-9 on third down last week.
Alabama may hold a significant edge on third down, especially with Russell's ability to extend plays and make things happen outside the pocket with his legs. Speaking of which:
4. Keelon Russell's legs will make a big difference for Alabama
Alabama may rely even more on Russell's ability as a runner this week with Carroll out. They'll still test the middle of Kentucky's defense with Daniel Hill, EJ Crowell, and Trae'shawn Brown, but if Alabama can't generate the same push it did last week, then more will be on Russell's shoulders as a playmaker.
That's all well and good for the former 5-star recruit, who flashed his immense ability a week ago in his starting debut against ECU. This will be his first road start, but he's got a preternatural calmness that will be advantageous in Lexington.
Russell is truly a pick-your-poison type of QB. If you are overly aggressive, he's going to burn you. If you sit back and cover, he's going to buy time and ultimately find someone open down the field or make something happen with his legs.
5. Alabama's defensive line will be a mismatch for Kentucky's offensive line
Kentucky was ultimately able to physically overwhelm Youngstown State last week, picking up 205 yards on the ground. But they still struggled at times to avoid negative plays and pressure.
Youngstown State generated a 13% havoc rate against Kentucky. They weren't able to get Minchey on the ground for a sack, but the fact that they had some success getting penetration should bode well for Alabama in Week 2.
Alabama's defensive line dominated ECU, holding the Pirates to just two rushing yards and bringing the QB down for three sacks despite a game plan that rarely called for him to hang onto the ball for very long.
If Alabama can hold the point of attack against Kentucky in a similar fashion, taking away the ground game in the process, then it's difficult to see the Wildcats keeping this game competitive for 60 minutes.
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