Alabama has plenty of extra motivation this week with Florida State coming to Tuscaloosa on Saturday. Last year in Tallahassee was the site of the most embarrassing loss of the Kalen DeBoer era, a 31-17 shocker by an FSU team that finished the season at 5-7.
As much as DeBoer has tried to downplay it, it's clear that this game means a little something more for the Crimson Tide.
Alabama is a significant favorite, and plenty is working in its favor, both on and off the field heading into the weekend.
Here are five reasons to expect an Alabama blowout on Saturday.
1. The revenge factor and two programs heading in opposite directions
We'll get the obvious out of the way. Alabama has a point to prove on Saturday. They're still pissed off about the performance last year in Tallahassee. Yes, this is a different team, but there are a lot of pieces that are still the same, particularly on defense.
They're going to want to make a statement.
And then there's Mike Norvell and Florida State, which are at the end of the line with one another. Norvell knows he's a dead man walking, especially after this week, when the Seminoles fired the Athletic Director who brought him to Tallahassee to begin with.
Florida State is hanging out by the edge of the cliff, just waiting for a little shove. Alabama will be happy to oblige.
2. FSU's one-dimensional offense will be food for Kane Wommack's Alabama defense
Ashton Daniels is a quarterback that Alabama knows well. He is certainly capable of making plays, but he's always been limited as a passer, and that hasn't changed in two weeks at Florida State.
Against SMU, Daniels managed just 125 passing yards on 23 attempts. The 'Noles have a strong running game, with Daniels being able to make plays with his legs and a star at RB in Ousmane Kromah, but much like it was able to do against Kentucky, Alabama will be able to key on the running game because they won't be scared of Daniels hitting shots down the field.
With an elite secondary, Alabama is going to be comfortable against a lot of opponents leaving their corners on an island. That will certainly be true against FSU.
3. Alabama has a major advantage on third downs
Alabama has been elite on third down defensively, allowing just 1-of-23 conversions through two weeks. That success should be able to continue this week against Florida State, which has converted just 44.8% of opportunities on 3rd/4th down this season, which ranks 53rd in the country.
On the flip side, Alabama's offense has converted 59% of its 3rd/4th down chances, which ranks 22nd in the country. FSU's defense is allowing 64% on 3rd/4th down, a mark that ranks 116th in the nation. That's despite some early down success rate, but the 'Noles' secondary has frequently left open receivers on third and long.
4. Keelon Russell should be able to take advantage of a beleaguered FSU secondary
It hasn't been a perfect start to Keelon Russell's starting career at Alabama, but he has flashed his brilliance as he continues to get comfortable. The game will begin slowing down for him soon, and a leaky Florida State secondary might provide the perfect opportunity for that to happen.
Florida State ranks 103rd in the country in EPA/per pass, per Game on Paper, and in their last outing, allowed SMU QB Kevin Jennings to throw for 430 yards.
Alabama has the receivers who should be able to get behind the FSU defensive backs. Ryan Coleman-Williams is itching for a prolific game, and guys like Lotzeir Brooks, Rico Scott, and Derek Meadows should be able to shake loose as well.
This looks like a perfect opportunity for Russell and the Alabama passing game to really get going before conference play gets in full swing next week.
5. Alabama's ground game continues to level up and should find running room
FSU has a talented defensive line, but they could be down as many as four linebackers on Saturday. If Alabama's offensive line can open up an initial hole, there's a real chance that the Tide's running backs can get through and create some explosive plays.
Daniel Hill had a career game last week against Kentucky, and both EJ Crowell and Trae'shawn Brown continue to get more comfortable. Alabama could also get back sophomore RB AK Dear this week after he missed the first two games with an ankle injury.
Alabama should also get Michael Carroll back at right guard after he missed last week's game with a concussion.
Alabama's offensive line and running backs have gotten off to a promising start to the season. They should have a chance to continue that momentum against a Florida State defense that ranks 93rd in the country in defensive rushing success rate through two weeks.
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