For the Alabama Crimson Tide, the SEC Tournament situation has become not winning a Big Dance 3-seed, but not losing one. Consensus has not been reached but a growing number of bracket projections have Nate Oats' team projected as a 3-seed.
Let's begin with Joe Lunardi's most recent projection on Sunday morning. Not only did Lunardi have Alabama as a 3-seed, but ESPN's Bracketologist also had the Crimson Tide as the second-highest 3-seed, and overall No. 10 seed. Other mainstream sources, CBS Sports and Fox, also currently project Alabama as a 3-seed. CBS has the Crimson Tide as a West Region 3-seed. For Fox, Mike Decourcy has Alabama a 3-seed in the Midwest Region.
Accuracy in predicting Big Dance brackets is not a science. Luck is involved. Repeatedly, annual tracking by the Bracket Matrix shows the top prognosticators are lesser-knowns. Four of those lesser-known top bracketologists are: Kyle Somelofske, Teacher Bracket, Delphi Bracketology, and 1-3-1 Sports. All four have the Crimson Tide as a current 3-seed.
NCAA Tournament history going back to 1985 shows that 3-seeds in the Big Dance fare much better than 4-seeds.
Alabama's goal in Nashville will be to win three games and become the SEC Tournament Champion. Having to most probably beat Georgia, Arkansas, and Florida in a span of less than 72 hours is a huge task. But the Crimson Tide has a good chance for an NCAA Tournament 3-seed with wins over Georgia and Arkansas.
Luck is not the only reason why bracketology is not a science. The Selection Committee considers a wealth of data, but ultimately, the team selections and seeding are human judgment calls. The human component adds unpredictability to the results.
Alabama has two significant data-point advantages that will influence the Selection Committee. According to ESPN's BPI, Alabama has college basketball's No. 1 Strength of Schedule (SOS). It will not weaken during the SEC Tournament. Alabama is No. 9 in Wins Above Bubble (WAB). Trailing Alabama in WAB are projected high seeds Virginia, Gonzaga, Purdue, Illinois, and Iowa State.
Alabama wins on Friday and Saturday, should mean the Crimson Tide's Big Dance 3-seed is secure before the SEC Championship Game tips off in Nashville.