Pride cometh before the fall.
We celebrated last week after hitting all three of our bold predictions for the Vanderbilt game. The regression to the mean was sharp vs. Missouri. We missed all three of our bold predictions from last week.
We predicted Alabama would be perfect on scoring touchdowns in the red zone. They....were not. We also picked Jam Miller to break free for an explosive run; his longest run was 12 yards. Not quite what we were looking for. We also predicted that Alabama would sack Beau Pribula four times. They were officially credited with two, though that number should have been three, as London Simmons stopped Pribula behind the line of scrimmage on a designed pass play that was ultimately ruled somehow as just a tackle-for-loss.
This week is all about bouncing back for us and revenge for Alabama. It's the Third Saturday in October - everyone has to bring their A-game.
Bold Predictions for Alabama against Tennessee
Ryan Williams produces 100+ receiving yards
This one might prove to be overly foolish. Ryan Williams was clearly hampered last week against Missouri, and the sophomore WR didn't produce a single catch for the first time in his career. He might still be banged up this week against Tennessee, and that might hinder his ability to make a big impact.
But I'm optimistic that he's in a much better spot this week. He wasn't included on Alabama's initial availability report in any capacity this week. That points to him being good to go with no restrictions.
This game will likely feel personal to Williams. Alabama tried to force-feed him the ball last year, but the Vols did a pretty good job on him. He caught eight passes for 73 yards and a touchdown, but it was a rough afternoon for the Crimson Tide's offense. Tennessee also made sure to hit Williams as often as they could. I'm sure he remembers that.
If Williams is close to 100%, this just feels like a big day for him. Tennessee plays a lot of man coverage, and defending Williams 1-on-1 will put the Vols' corners in a tough spot. Simpson will hit Williams on an explosive play for a touchdown at some point, and the sophomore phenom goes over 100 receiving yards for the second time this year.
Lotzeir Brooks finds the endzone for the first time
This has to happen soon, right? Lotzeir Brooks is playing too well - and doing all the right things - for the football gods not to reward him with a touchdown pretty soon.
The freshman has been as advertised for the Crimson Tide. He made waves during spring practice and then shook off a fall camp injury to take over as the WR4 behind Williams, Germie Bernard, and Isaiah Horton. Brooks has been functioning as a co-starter for a few weeks, and even if Williams is 100%, the freshman is going to see plenty of snaps.
Brooks made the biggest play of the game last week against Missouri, securing a contested catch in the 4th quarter on a critical 4th-and-8. Simpson throwing the ball to him in that situation shows how much faith he has in the youngster.
Brooks finds the endzone this week as Alabama terrorizes Tennessee through the air.
With or without Jam Miller, Alabama outrushes Tennessee
We'll save the boldest prediction for last. Tennessee comes in averaging a shade over 200 rushing yards per game, good for 22nd in the country. Alabama is averaging 127, good for 91st in the country.
But Tennessee is going to be hell-bent on rushing the passer to affect Simpson, which should leave running lanes open. The Vols send a lot of aggressive blitzes, and Alabama will try to make them pay for it with some runs away from it.
Per Game on Paper, Tennessee's defense ranks 114th in the country in rushing success rate allowed. Alabama's defense - despite being prone to explosive runs - ranks 42nd.
I'd feel better about this pick if I knew for sure Jam Miller was going to play. But Ryan Grubb will be stubborn running the football regardless. Tennessee's offense is all about going fast; Alabama will try to combat that by being more deliberate and dominating the time of possession. That will be made easier with an effective ground game.
If Alabama can outrush Tennessee, then the Crimson Tide should find themselves with a comfortable win.