Nine SEC basketball teams are in contention for an SEC Tournament double-bye. Florida is a near-lock for one of the slots. Four of the other eight teams go head-to-head on Saturday. Arkansas (9-4) hosts 8-5 Missouri. Vanderbilt (8-5) hosts 9-4 Tennessee.
The Alabama Crimson Tide game in Baton Rouge should be the easiest game for the double-bye contenders. The other three games are Texas A&M (8-5) at Oklahoma; Kentucky (8-5) at collapsing Auburn; and Texas (8-5) at Georgia.
ESPN Analytics gives the Crimson Tide a 66.4% probability of beating LSU. Bart Torvik's model gives an 68% probability of an Alabama win with a 89-84 score. The Tide could be somewhat flat after the big win over Arkansas, but the models might be overvaluing the Bengal Tigers. LSU is 2-11 in SEC play and has lost seven of its last eight games.
The Bengal Tigers have lost starting point guard Dedan Thomas for the season. Many LSU fans have given up on their head coach, Matt McMahon. In four seasons, McMahon has just 16 SEC wins. The Pete Maravich Center should have had a large crowd when Arkansas visited on Feb. 10, but the arena was less than half-full. The Razorbacks won 91-62.
Kentucky and Texas A&M should get road wins. The most competitive games should be the Vandy vs Tennessee tussle and Texas at Georgia, with the Longhorns and the Bulldogs trying to protect projected NCAA Tournament bids.
Alabama Basketball with upper hand against LSU
Going back to February 2020, LSU has beaten Alabama only once, while the Crimson Tide has notched10 wins. The one Alabama loss was an overtime game in Baton Rouge.
The Crimson Tide will be short-handed again in Baton Rouge. Nate Oats basically played a seven-man rotation against Arkansas. Taylor Bol Bowen tried to play, but tweaked his leg injury and was limited to 10 minutes. Noah Williamson and Jahlil Bethea were ineffective in five combined minutes. It might make sense for Oats to rest Bol Bowen against LSU and Mississippi State and hopefully get him back for the Tennessee game on Feb. 28.