The next Alabama Crimson Tide basketball game is Saturday night in Tuscaloosa. The game is important because it is the next one, but otherwise it is not a big game. A huge game for Alabama will be on Wednesday night, also in Tuscaloosa, when the Crimson Tide hosts Arkansas.
On Saturday night, only Alabama can beat the Crimson Tide. South Carolina cannot. That's how far apart the two teams are in the ability to win SEC games. The Gamecocks are last in the SEC with a 2-9 conference record. ESPN's BPI charitably gives South Carolina a No. 90 ranking among all D1 teams. They are No. 112 in the NCAA NET and No. 150 in the KPI ranking.
Wednesday night in Coleman Coliseum will be entirely different. In computer rankings, the Razorbacks and the Crimson Tide are close to equal. The biggest difference between the rankings is in the BPI and the KPI. Alabama is No. 17 and No. 12 in the two rankings; Arkansas is No. 22 and No. 21. The NCCA NET has the Hogs a shade higher than Alabama at No. 20, with the Crimson Tide at No. 21.
Bart Torvik's model gives Alabama a 68% win probability with a 96-90 projected score. ESPN Analytics gives the Crimson Tide a 67.4% win probability.
John Calipari's team is No. 1 in the SEC in overall field goal percentage at 50.2%, and No. 2 in three-point makes at 37.1%. Alabama is No. 12 in the SEC with 46.3% field goal shooting, and No. 4 in three-point makes at 35.6%. Statistically, Arkansas is also better at three-point defense, holding opponents to 30.9% to Alabama's 32%.
The Hogs are No. 13 in total rebounds, well below Alabama at No. 3, but Alabama is last in the SEC in opponent rebounds.
The Razorbacks have an advantage in turnover margin at +2.63, compared to the Crimson Tide at -0.41. Calipari has five guys who average more than three 3pt. shots per game and four of the five average, making 37.8% or better. Freshman Darius Acuff averages 41.1%. At 6'10", Trevon Brazile leads the Hogs in rebounds. He compares with Aiden Sherrell in three-point accuracy, but is more proficient around the basket.
John Calipari has built a roster that can be nearly as explosive as the Crimson Tide. Another cold three-point shooting half like Alabama had in Oxford would become a major problem in what should be a shootout.
Opportunity and Challenge for the Alabama Crimson Tide
An Alabama win would boost its NCAA Tournament resume. The Crimson Tide has a chance to move up from 4-seed range to a 3-seed with a win over the Hogs and later against Tennessee.
Note: Player and team stats provided by Sports Reference and the SEC.