A look at key Alabama Crimson Tide Playoff calculations

Two more wins and the Alabama Crimson Tide will cement its at-large Playoff bid. A probable trip to Atlanta will only impact Alabama's seeding. A loss in the SEC Championship Game is not expected to be punished by the CFP Selection Committee.

According to ESPN Analytics, the Crimson Tide has the eighth-highest probability of making the Playoff field, at 70.7%. Twelve teams are at 62.1% probability or higher, with a big drop-off to the 13th (SMU), at 41.6%.

The top 12 are Oregon 99.6%; Indiana (96.6%); Ohio State (94.6%); Texas (93.7%); Georgia (92%); Penn State (88.2%); Boise State (77%); Alabama (70.7%); Notre Dame (68.9%); Tennessee (66.4%); Miami (62.7%) and Ole Miss (62.1%).

In ESPN's latest Football Power Index (FPI), Alabama slipped one spot to No. 2. Texas is No. 1; others in the top 10 are Ohio State (No. 3); Notre Dame (No. 4); Georgia (No. 5); Ole Miss (No. 6); Penn State (No. 7); Oregon (No. 8); Tennessee (No. 9) and Miami (no. 10). Other Playoff contenders are Indiana (No. 11); Boise State (No. 21), and BYU (No. 30).

Alabama Crimson Tide and Strength of Schedule (SOS)

So far, the Selection Committee has talked about SOS, but the rankings have not shown SOS being given much consideration. That could change in the last rankings, though few Alabama football fans expect the committee to make an abrupt change in perspective. In contrast, comments from the committee have indicated a three-loss Power Four championship game loser will not be excluded from the final rankings.

After Saturday's contest with FCS Mercer, Alabama's SOS dropped from No. 11 to No. 16. The ESPN calculation of SOS in remaining games also changed. Alabama went from No. 25 to No. 12. The Alabama Crimson Tide's Strength of Record (SOR) increased slightly to No. 7 and its Game Control ranking stayed the same at No.3.

Other Playoff Contenders SOS

• Georgia (No. 1); Tennessee (No. 18); Ohio State (No. 28); Ole Miss (No. 29); Penn State (No. 35); Texas (No. 38); Oregon (No. 43); BYU (No. 53); Miami (No. 54); Boise State (No. 76); Notre Dame (No. 82) and Indiana (No. 106).

In a sensible CFB Playoff world, Boise State, Notre Dame, and Indiana (without a Big Ten Championship) would not be part of a 12-team Playoff field.