In what future world of college football could the Alabama Crimson Tide go into a season predicted to be the SEC's seventh-best team? Based on one source, that future is the 2026 college football season.
According to a computer projection provided by Pro Football Network (PFSN), the 2026 Crimson Tide has only a 14.1% probability of making the 2026 SEC Championship Game. With higher probabilities are Texas (32.7%), Texas A&M (27.7%), Georgia (26.9%), Ole Miss (21.4%), Oklahoma (20.1%), and LSU (16.3%). Alabama also has the seventh-highest probability of winning the SEC Championship Game at 6.7%.
PFSN's model gives only two SEC teams a better than 50% probability of making the CFP Playoff. They are Texas at 67.8% and Texas A&M at 55%. Alabama is also number seven among SEC teams with a projected Playoff probability of 33.1%.
PFSN does love the Alabama Crimson Tide
If the PFSN model is proven correct, the Crimson Tide will not make the Playoff. Among all FBS teams, Alabama's playoff probability ranks No. 14. Other SEC teams that would also miss the Playoff include LSU, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, and Missouri.
Why does the PFSN model project such bleak results for the Crimson Tide? In what the model defines as an Offense Impact Score, the Crimson Tide is projected to be No. 29 nationally. The Alabama scores somewhat better defensively at No. 18. According to the model, Alabama's regular-season record is projected at 7.48 wins and 4.52 losses.
Alabama football fans are unlikely to be too bothered by the PFSN projections. Undervaluing the Alabama Crimson Tide has become such common fare. Athlon Sports presents a somewhat counter opinion in a recent ranking of SEC Strength of Schedule (SOS) for the 2026 season. Athlon has Texas with the SEC's No. 1 SOS. With no games against FCS teams and Ohio State on the Texas schedule, the ranking makes sense.
Athlon has the Alabama Crimson Tide with the SEC's No. 14 SOS, which is rather low for a team that will have a four-game run of Georgia, Tennessee, Texas A&M, and at LSU. Still, the schedule looks built for at least a probable nine or ten-win regular season.
If Athlon's SOS rankings prove correct, the Georgia Bulldogs, with the second-easiest schedule among SEC teams, could cake-walk back to Atlanta in December.