Are the Indiana Hoosiers destined for greatness? More than a few college football experts believe they are. On the flip side, many question whether the Alabama Crimson Tide has the potential for a national championship run.
Indiana has earned the right to be favored in the Rose Bowl. The Hoosiers may or may not have a clear advantage at quarterback. Indiana has a significant advantage in special teams. Statistically, Indiana has the better defense. Alabama has the personnel to have the better defense in the Rose Bowl.
Computer models project an Indiana win, with Jeff Sagarin's model being the most dispiriting for Alabama football fans. His model predicts a 35-19 Indiana win. The Massey and Fremeau models have the Hoosiers winning by six points and 12 points, respectively.
Why the models are wrong about the Alabama Crimson Tide
Alabama has much to prove in the Rose Bowl ... to the college football world, but more importantly to itself. No Alabama player has more to prove than Ty Simpson. Heavy rains during the game are a concern, but the weather had a better chance than Indiana of stopping 'let it rip' success for Simpson and Crimson Tide receivers. Simpson will need solid play from the offensive line and sure hands from his receivers, but neither will have to be perfect for Alabama to capitalize on Indiana's secondary.
The most important advantage for Alabama against Indiana is what Kane Wommack learned in the Oklahoma win. Wommack listened to his defensive backs, who asked him to trust them in man coverage. The Crimson Tide had almost solely used zone coverages until the second half in Norman. Mixing man, allowed numbers to be added to the Tide's pass rush. Fernando Mendoza is a much better quarterback than John Mateer, but the same strategy can work against the Hoosiers.
Bad luck cannot be predicted. That and really bad weather could doom the Crimson Tide. The Hoosiers are a disciplined team that will not falter with a sizable lead. Alabama will have to be its best self, early and throughout most of the game. My take is Alabama wins a close game for three reasons: Ty Simpson will match or outperform Mendoza; Alabama's receivers are better than Indiana's secondary; the Crimson Tide's secondary is better than Indiana's receivers; and Indiana's advantage in the running game will not be enough. Alabama wins a nail-biter.