The Third Saturday in October will always carry high stakes as one of the fiercest rivalries college football has to offer. With the rise of Tennessee under Josh Heupel coinciding with the Alabama Football dynasty losing some steam in recent years, the rivalry has only intensified.
The Vols have just one win against Bama since 2007, and even that one win required a near-perfect storm scenario and some lucky breaks. Still, that was all it took to give the Tennessee faithful hope and reinvigorate the mutual hatred between the two programs.
In the inaugural season of the 12-team playoff era, the Third Saturday in October will take on even more meaning.
Both the Crimson Tide and the Volunteers came into the season with SEC title and playoff aspirations. Both have disappointed in some ways, unexpectedly losing on the same evening two weeks ago. Both teams' playoff hopes are still very much alive, but losses to non-playoff teams have made the margins for error much thinner.
Is this year's iteration of Alabama-Tennessee an elimination game?
Not in the traditional sense. Theoretically, either team can lose this game and then win out and likely make the playoffs with a 10-2 record.
Tennessee would have a more unfavorable path to an at-large bid in this scenario, as the Vols are already the lower-ranked team and would drop even further with a loss to Alabama. Additionally, they would likely only have one high-quality win on their resume in Georgia. Their second-best win would be either Oklahoma, Arkansas, or Vanderbilt.
Alabama has a tougher schedule going forward, which simultaneously gives it more opportunities to lose and more opportunities to notch quality wins. Should Alabama lose to Tennessee and then win out, the Tide could claim wins over Georgia, LSU, and Missouri, as well as Oklahoma and an ascending Wisconsin squad.
While this isn’t exactly an elimination game, it will make a playoff berth very tough for the losing team. Whoever loses this rivalry matchup will have its back against the wall with two SEC losses midway through October.
The loser will almost certainly have to win out to even give itself a chance. Even if it does so and finishes the regular season with a 10-2 record, the loser will be at the mercy of other teams in the conference and around the country. It will have to spend the remainder of the season rooting for other playoff contenders to lose, and it will likely be leaving its fate in the hands of the playoff committee.
The Third Saturday in October is always a must-win game for Alabama Football. It is one of the barometer games on the Tide’s schedule every year that contributes heavily to whether or not a season can be deemed successful.
Even outside of the rivalry implications, I wouldn’t recommend losing to Tennessee this season if the Tide wants to make the College Football Playoff and compete for a national title.