Much of the college football world is in an uproar about Alabama's No. 5 ranking in the first Selection Committee rankings of the cycle. Hunter Yurachek addressed why the committee rated the Crimson Tide as having three quality wins. Along with Kentucky and South Carolina, the third was Mississippi State, with a mostly healthy Kamrio Taylor.
The committee could be asked a significant question, though any answer would be inconclusive. Yurachek couldn't say that one reason the committee ranked the Crimson Tide so highly was a blown pass interference no-call in the Georgia game. After the Michigan vs. Western Michigan officiating debacle, Yurachek said the committee could not reverse the outcome of a game. He implied that all facets of games are evaluated.
Jeff Sagarin's respected computer model ratings were adjusted by Sagarin, with that game result being a Western Michigan win and a Michigan loss. That's an example of a person's mind being more valuable than an algorithm.
The Playoff selection process relies on a lot of data. It is never clear how the data is weighed for each team. While that frustrates fans, the committee's experienced football minds are beneficial. Of course, humans can be wrong, but the committee has an abundance of career, football-playing, and coaching experience.
What is means for Alabama going forward
First, the initial rankings can mislead. Much will change, likely beginning as soon as next Tuesday. Secondly, previous selection committees have changed their minds about teams. Such inconsistency is inevitable in a process that gains new information every week.
Still, Alabama is in a strong position. A third loss on Saturday possibly means, at worst, only a slide of four or five spots. Win out from there, and the 9-3 Crimson Tide would likely make the Playoff field. The key word is likely, rather than certainly.
What Alabama cannot afford is a bad loss in Baton Rouge. Losing by less than a touchdown might be okay. A much larger losing margin and the Crimson Tide's drop in the rankings could be significant.
Ranked No. 14 on Tuesday night, LSU is a team for whom a third loss could come close to destroying any playoff chances.
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