On Saturday in Tallahassee, would Alabama Football have defeated Florida State if the Crimson Tide had Caleb Downs, Justice Haynes, and Julian Sayin on the roster? A simple 'yes' or 'no' is the best response. My answer is yes.
Sayin completed 65% of his 20 passes against Texas, despite a couple of drops by Jeremiah Smith. His production was 126 yards, one touchdown, and no interceptions. Caleb Downs is one of college football's best players. Downs and his teammates shut down Steve Sarkisian and Arch Manning. Michigan rolled over New Mexico 34-17 as Haynes rushed for 159 yards.
Writing for Dawg Nation, Mike Griffith speculated that with the three former players on the 2025 roster, Alabama would have beaten FSU. The contention was part of a larger premise that 'better' players led to LSU's win over Clemson and Alabama's loss to FSU. LSU added better players in the offseason. Alabama added players as well, but none to compensate for the loss of Sayin, Downs, and Haynes.
When asked why LSU was finally able to win a season-opener, Brian Kelly answered that it was better players, "Better players — better players. This roster needed to be upgraded, and we went out and we upgraded the roster." Kelly added, "I would say just in terms of the SEC, it’s so talent-driven... what it takes for even the most successful of coaches to come into the SEC and have success. You know, you’re not coming into this conference and out-coaching somebody and scheming them up.”
Alabama Football Scheme Over Talent?
Since the loss to FSU, some Alabama fans have complained that Kalen DeBoer incorrectly believes scheme is as or more important than talent.
Griffith provided a simple reason why LSU won and Alabama lost in Week 1, "One team added better players, the other team lost better players." He pointed out the Bengal Tigers added the No. 2-ranked Portal class, while Alabama's transfer class was ranked No. 61. Florida State was ranked No. 36.
Of course, other factors that influence success. Though not often spread over many seasons, the development of players still matters. Available funds for player payrolls certainly affect success. Maybe no team has bought a championship yet, but not because teams are not trying. If Griffith is correct, LSU should play Texas in Atlanta in December. Maybe it is not that simple.
Note: Player stats provided by Sports Reference