Kalen DeBoer seemed to be pretty far away from the hot seat entering the 2025 season. That was in spite of a disappointing debut a year ago. Most Alabama fans were behind the second-year coach, with plenty of optimism in the air in Tuscaloosa ahead of the season.
DeBoer had built a lot of positive momentum. Saturday in Tallahassee was a stark reminder of how fast things can come crashing down in college football.
One game into the 2025 season, and all the optimism has dried up. DeBoer's seat went from comfortable to a raging inferno, at least in the perception of many in the national media and the fanbase. It's unknown where he stands with Greg Byrne and the decision makers in Tuscaloosa.
I've been in the camp for a while that DeBoer was safe barring a Mike DuBose-esque crash-and-burn. DuBose came into the 2000 season riding the high of an SEC Championship in 1999. Alabama opened the season ranked No. 3 in the country, and proceeded to go 3-8. DuBose was let go after the season. The administration had no choice.
According to On3's Andy Staples, it won't take that level of bottoming out for DeBoer to be shown the door. Staples believes an 8-4 season would be enough to force a change at the Capstone.
On3's @Andy_Staples on Kalen DeBoer:
— On3 (@On3sports) September 1, 2025
"If you have 3 more losses like that this year, he's going to be fired. I don't care how big the buyout is. It's Alabama. You can't go 8-4." pic.twitter.com/9feGSN1eM9
Kalen DeBoer would likely be safe - for now - if Alabama finishes 8-4
Contrary to what Staples says, you can go 8-4 at Alabama. Nick Saban finished worse than 8-4 once. Gene Stallings did, too. Coach Bryant had four seasons of 8-4 or worse during his long tenure at Alabama.
At this point, Alabama fans are so down in the dumps that they think it would take a minor miracle to reach eight wins in the regular season. Most have already resigned themselves to a four or five-win season.
Eight wins would buy DeBoer a third year, absolutely. Staples may not care about the buyout, but Byrne and the University absolutely do. This is not an athletic department flush with cash, or a university that has a vast array of billionaire boosters who are willing to pay exorbitant buyouts.
It's not what Alabama fans want to hear, but patience will be necessary. 8-4 would be a disappointment, no doubt, and DeBoer would likely be firmly on the hot seat heading into his third season in Tuscaloosa.
If the pessimistic among us in the fanbase are correct and Alabama just completely bottoms out and goes 3-9 or 4-8 - which seems highly unlikely - then the buyout would no longer matter. Alabama would have to pull the trigger because at that point, it would become more expensive to the program long term not to keep him around.