In Auburn, students are camping overnight for a chance to get inside Neville Arena on Saturday. In Tuscaloosa, Alabama basketball fans are most concerned about what will happen on Friday at the Tuscaloosa County Courthouse.
With or without Charles Bediako on Saturday, Alabama Basketball has a chance to beat Auburn. Winning in Auburn is not easy, but Nate Oats is 3-3 there, including last season's dramatic overtime win.
An Iron Bowl of Basketball game is always a tense contest. Animosity runs deep. The Tigers looked shaky earlier in the season. The script has changed. With four wins in Auburn's last five games, Steven Pearl no longer appears to be a 'nepo' hire. The Tigers swarmed over the Florida Gators with a 9-point win in Gainesville. According to Ken Pomeroy's model, the Tigers are No. 4 among SEC teams and No. 12 in Division One in Offensive Efficiency. Alabama is No. 1 in the SEC and No. 3 nationally. The two teams are close in Defensive Efficiency, with Auburn at No. 69 and Alabama at No. 71.
Alabama needs the road win to remain in contention for an SEC Tournament double-bye and have a shot at the SEC Regular Season Championship. With a drop to five conference losses, the Crimson Tide's horizon would become postseason play.
Alabama has the best team but Auburn has the home crowd
Computer models favor Auburn at home. Bart Torviik's model comes close to making the game a toss-up. His model gives the Tigers a 54% win probability in a 89-88 game. ESPN Analytics is more bullish on the Tigers, giving Auburn a win probability of 59.7%.
With Alabama's win over Texas A&M, the Crimson Tide is projected as an NCAA Tournament 5-seed. The Tigers are projected as a 7-seed by Bracket Matrix.
There are two more important SEC basketball games on Saturday night. Florida is at Texas A&M, and Tennessee is at Kentucky. A win by the rejuvenated Wildcats would help the Crimson Tide. Alabama's win over the Cats in January is currently a Quad 1 win, and the Crimson Tide needs it to remain at the end of the season.
A ruling on Charles Bediako's eligibility is expected Friday afternoon. This post will be updated.