ESPN Analytics gives Florida State an 11.1% probability of beating Alabama. If the model's projection is accurate, FSU could upset the Alabama Crimson Tide. While that outcome seems highly unlikely, the Seminoles could perhaps win if they can succeed in at least three of four iffy possibilities.
The Noles have serious flaws, but despite them, FSU came close to knocking off ranked SMU, losing 27-24 on a late field goal. Despite having a quarterback with a poor completion percentage and one Mike Norvell has pretty much thrown under the bus, FSU's offense is ranked close to Alabama's. Using Brian Fremeau's, FEI, adjusted offensive rankings, Alabama is No. 11. The Noles are No. 20.
FSU's offensive strength is running the football. Ousmane Kromah plays bigger than his 216 lbs. He runs with power and breaks tackles. He is averaging 6.42 yards per carry, including 5.3 yards against SMU. As Alabama fans know well, Ashton Daniels is also a rushing threat. He gained a ton of yards against Alabama in last season's Iron Bowl and averaged 4.4 yards against SMU.
Least doubtful 'If' for FSU against Alabama
The least iffy situation for FSU is can it effectively run on Alabama. Giving the Noles the benefit of doubt, my take is a 'maybe', though I expect Alabama's deep defense will wear down FSU's offensive line. Another scenario is that Alabama loads up to stuff FSU's run game, knowing Daniels cannot beat them with his arm.
A second Iffy situation for FSU is whether it can neutralize Alabama's passing attack. My quick answer is 'no'. SMU's Kevin Jennings lit up FSU with 430 passing yards. Keelon Russell could have a big day through the air.
A third iffy situation is whether Ashton Daniels can surprise Alabama with suddenly discovered aerial success. My short answer is 'NO' because the Crimson Tide secondary is too good to allow a career, mediocre passer to beat them.
FSU's fourth iffy situation offers no clear answer. Mike Norvell's head is on the block. Do his players rally around him with a 'us against the world' mentality? Having much to improve can provide strong motivation. FSU performing at its highest level in Tuscaloosa is a big ask. If strong motivation fuels the Noles early, it will likely fade during the contest.
The bottom line is there are too many 'ifs' for FSU to win on Saturday.
Note: Player stats provided by ESPN
Add us as a preferred source on Google