Computer models predict an Alabama Basketball win over Ole Miss on Tuesday night. Predictions of a Crimson Tide win run from a seven-point victory to Warren Nolan's model that has Alabama winning by 11 points.
Nate Oats has a task to keep his team from being overconfident. Alabama has the home-court advantage, but the Ole Miss roster is deep with experience. Chris Beard's top eight players include seven seniors and a junior. The most physical player for Ole Miss is Mikeal Brown-Jones, who has missed the last two games due to a concussion. On Monday Beard expressed optimism that Brown-Jones will be cleared to play against Alabama.
A rowdy Coleman Coliseum crowd can impact the game, but less so against Ole Miss than most teams. Playing big road games is old hat for Chris Beard's roster. The Rebels missed last season's NCAA Tournament, with a 20-12 record. After Chris Beard added six transfers for the 2024-25 season, the Rebels were projected to be an improved team this season. UNC-Greensboro transfer, Brown-Jones, and Virginia Tech transfer Sean Pedulla have exceeded expectations.
Three senior guards lead Ole Miss in scoring; Pedulla, Jaylen Murray, and Matthew Murrell. The team's leading rebounders are also transfer players; Malik Dia (Belmont) and Dre Davis (Seton Hall). Former Ole Miss starter, Jaemyn Brakefield has embraced a key backup role.
Alabama will have a size advantage. For Ole Miss Malik Dia is 6'9", while Brakefield and Brown-Jones are 6'8". Ole Miss also has 7'2" freshman John Bol but he has played no more than four minutes in any SEC game. Alabama can be expected to respond to its size advantage by playing small at times, using three guards and perhaps even four with Chris Youngblood, playing a non-traditional forward spot. In addition to Alabama's injured players Latrell Wrightsell and Houston Mallette, the Crimson Tide may not have Derrion Reid against Ole Miss.
That the Rebels are 3-0 is not surprising. It does surprise that in the two games without Brown-Jones, Ole Miss won by an average of 9.5 points.
Ole Miss does some things better than Alabama Basketball
In early SEC play, Ole Miss has been better than Alabama in making threes and free throws. Ole Miss has also been better than the Crimson Tide in turnover margin. The game's pace of play will showcase contrasting styles. Per Ken Pomeroy's Adjusted Tempo calculation, Alabama Basketball is the nation's No. 2 team. Ole Miss is No. 198.
Alabama should move to 4-0 against Ole Miss. But it is a mistake to think Ole Miss, playing its best can't beat an Alabama team not playing at its best.
Note: Team stats provided by secsports.com