After Saturday's road win over the Auburn Tigers, one credible source projects that Alabama Basketball will become an NCAA Tournament 4-seed on Selection Sunday. The source is Bart Torvik, who is well known for his analytics.
Torvik projects only one of nine other SEC basketball teams to be seeded higher than the Alabama Crimson Tide. He has the Florida Gators as a 3-seed. Vanderbilt joins Alabama as a projected 4-seed. Tennessee is a 5-seed; Arkansas is a 6-seed; Kentucky and Auburn are 7-seeds; Texas A&M an 8-seed; Georgia and Texas are 9-seeds.
Torvik's projection has the Missouri Tigers as the second team in a First Teams Out list. LSU is far down that list at 19th, indicating the Bengal Tigers are not a true NCAA Bubble team.
A 4-seed would be a good Big Dance position for the Alabama Crimson Tide. According to Bracket Odds, going back to 1985, 4-seeds have advanced to a Sweet Sixteen 48.1% of the time, and to an Elite Eight 15.6%.
Defining a reasonable ceiling for Alabama is next to impossible, given the Crimson Tide's revolving door of injured players. Maybe with every player healthy except Davion Hannah and Collins Onyejiaka (plus Charles Bediako eligible), Alabama could become good enough to advance to the Final Four. More realistically, an Elite Eight or Sweet 16 game may be the Tide's ceiling.
The Crimson Tide has plenty of chances to enhance its tournament resume with games against Arkansas, Tennessee, Georgia, and Auburn left in the regular season, plus games in the SEC Tournament.
Alabama Basketball and lots of unknowns
ESPN's Joe Lunardi offered insight into how unpredictable SEC basketball teams are. According to Lunardi, Alabama, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Arkansas, Kentucky, Auburn, and Georgia have "the potential for a Sweet 16 run -- or a first-round exit." Rather than including Texas A&M on that list, Lunardi labeled the Aggies as an NCAA Tournament 'Sleeper" team.
Another perspective is that the Crimson Tide's defensive weaknesses make it vulnerable to lesser teams when shots are not falling. So on the road, against Ole Miss and LSU are not lock wins.