The Auburn Tigers have just a one-game lead over Alabama Basketball for the SEC Regular Season Championship. Both teams have nine, regular season league games remaining, so Auburn's margin appears slim. The Crimson Tide controls its destiny. Win out in the regular season and Alabama will be the SEC Champion.
If the Crimson Tide does not pull off what would become a 14-game winning streak in the toughest college basketball conference it would become the favorite to win it all in the NCAA Tournament. Few Alabama basketball fans are making such a prediction. The SEC is so tough that 14 in a row to finish the season would be close to a miracle.
Multiple computer models predict Auburn to finish 16-2 or 17-1. Warren Nolan's algorithm makes the most rosy prediction for Alabama finishing at 15-3, with losses at Tennessee; and at Auburn.
Auburn may or may not be a better team in February than Alabama. The Tigers certainly have a schedule advantage. ESPN Analytics ranks the Alabama Crimson Tide with the toughest, regular season finishing schedule in college basketball. ESPN ranks the Auburn schedule as the fourth-toughest. In addition, Alabama Basketball has five road SEC games and the Auburn Tigers have only four.
A suddenly tougher Alabama Basketball challenge on Saturday
Alabama's finish was made tougher with John Calipari reviving the Arkansas Razorbacks. At the end of January, the Tide's upcoming trip to Fayetteville seemed like a sure win. With the Hogs beating Kentucky and Texas on the road, Saturday night's game has become a threat.Based on ESPN's calculation, Alabama has a better chance to beat Kentucky in Tuscaloosa (76%) than it does to beat Arkansas in Bud Walton (69.5%).
A practical thought is any finish that gives the Crimson Tide a double-bye for the SEC Tournament is acceptable. There will be another valued championship to compete for in Nashville, but for the first time in the history of Alabama Basketball a later championship is legitimately on the Crimson Tide's list of goals.
Five goals are within reach for the Alabama Crimson Tide: win the SEC Regular Season Championship; win the SEC Tournament Championship; secure an NCAA Tournament 1-seed; be one of the last two teams playing in April; and win it all. Let's enjoy the ride.