We're just two days away from the biggest Iron Bowl of Basketball of all time. For now. It'll be No. 1 Auburn vs. No. 2 Alabama - or No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 2 Auburn if you prefer the Coaches Poll - on Saturday afternoon in Coleman Coliseum.
It's the first No. 1 vs. No. 2 matchup in SEC Basketball history. It's the first time Alabama and Auburn have met as the top two teams in the polls in any sport. The eyes of the country will be on Tuscaloosa for the 3pm CT tip-off.
Auburn is not just the No. 1 team in the AP Poll. They're also the No. 1 team in KenPom and their statistical profile is of that of the best team in college basketball this season. That means the weaknesses are few and far in between.
The Tigers are the nation's most efficient offense according to KenPom's metrics. They're the 17th most efficient defense. They are elite on both ends of the court.
Everything runs through senior big-man Johni Broome. He's one of the two leading candidates - along with Duke's Cooper Flagg - for National Player of the Year. When Auburn needs a bucket, they're going to give it to Broome to go get one.
Broome was excellent last season, too, but the big difference for Auburn this year is how much better they are at guard and how efficient they've been from three. The Tigers shoot 37.2% from three this season, a mark that ranks 40th out of 364 D-1 teams.
They like to go inside to Broome and then kick out to shooters - Tahaad Pettiford, Denver Jones, and Myles Kelly are all 40%+ three-point shooters this season. Chad Baker-Mazara and Jakhi Howard are also fully capable of shooting at a high level, too.
Defensively, their length inside causes a lot of issues. Broome is a natural center, but they start him at the four so they can play Dylan Cardwell alongside him. Led by those two, Auburn ranks third in the country in block rate.
That will be particularly challenging for an Alabama offense predicated on getting to the rim for layups and kick-out threes. Auburn's ability to challenge shots at the rim will allow Bruce Pearl to keep his perimeter defenders tight on Alabama's shooters because they don't have to help cut off drives.
How Nate Oats attacks Auburn's defense will be a fascinating punch/counter-punch in this game. The most obvious solution is playing five out and dragging those big guys out of the paint. That would mean Cliff Omoruyi is on the bench, though, and one of the main reasons Oats targeted Omoruyi in the Transfer Portal was for this matchup to try and combat Broome.
This could be a huge moment for freshman Aiden Sherrell, who has the size to deal with Broome and Cardwell defensively but also possesses the ability to stretch the floor as a shooter that Auburn will have to respect. The big question there will be if Sherrell can defend without fouling on the other end.
Auburn is an immense challenge, but Alabama might have one advantage that could be a key to this game.
Alabama's one big statistical advantage over Auburn
Defending without fouling will be key for both teams on Saturday. Alabama's advantage is that it is one of the best teams in the country at drawing fouls. That's what happens when you relentlessly attack the basket like the Crimson Tide does. Alabama is 19th in the country in free-throw rate.
Tide fans have been frustrated with Mark Sears and his driving to the basket, but he draws a ton of fouls as a result. He should probably draw more as it feels like he doesn't get the whistle he deserves for the contact he takes.
Mo Dioubate, Grant Nelson, and Cliff Omoruyi also get to the free throw line at a high rate.
And as good as Auburn's defense has been, the Tigers foul a lot. Pearl coaches his defense to play aggressively. They will hold Alabama off-ball for as long as the officials let them get away with it.
Auburn is 265th in the country in free-throw rate allowed. In conference play, they rank 13th out of 16 SEC teams. Go ahead and make peace with the fact that Auburn fans will cry about officiating if they lose this game regardless of the fact that the statistics show they foul more than most teams in the country. It's a grand conspiracy against them, as most things are.
The key for Alabama will be taking advantage of those opportunities at the free throw line. Alabama is shooting just 71.3% from the charity stripe this season, which ranks 205th in the nation. They've been slightly better in conference play, raising that percentage to 72.3%.
Alabama is certainly capable of making its free throws. In Tuesday night's win over Texas, the Crimson Tide connected on 18-of-20 attempts from the foul line. In a game that will be hotly contested and could come down to a possession or two, Alabama simply cannot afford to leave points at the free throw line.