Alabama basketball suffered an unfortunate defeat at the hands of Ole Miss on Tuesday in Tuscaloosa, and its hopes of staying alive in the SEC Championship race could hinge on its ability to go on the road and beat Kentucky in Lexington on Saturday.
Losing to the Rebels was not all that harmful for Alabama's NCAA Tournament standing, but it did remove some of the Crimson Tide's margin for error. If you want to compete for an SEC Championship against teams like Auburn, Tennessee, Kentucky, Florida, and Ole Miss, you can't let games at home slip through your fingers.
A loss to Kentucky on Saturday would not be disqualifying for Alabama's hopes of winning the league, but it would put the Crimson Tide behind the eight-ball having two conference losses through its first five league games. They would have a small margin for error for the rest of the season if they can't win at Rupp.
Beating Kentucky on the road is never easy; Rupp Arena is one of the toughest road environments in college basketball so it will take an A+ effort from the Crimson Tide to have a shot at stealing one. Even that might not be enough.
This is no longer John Calipari's Kentucky team, stuck running an offensive system from 15 years ago. Mark Pope has fully embraced analytics, and the Wildcats run a similar style to what Nate Oats brought to Tuscaloosa.
Kentucky will let it fly from deep, and in conference play, they have hit on a ridiculous 39.8% of their three-point attempts, which ranks 2nd in the country during that timeframe. Alabama will have to do whatever it takes to keep Koby Brea off the three-point line; Brea is perhaps the best three-point shooter in the country and has hit 46.7% of his attempts this year. He's good enough to swing the game on his own.
Kentucky is one of the few teams who can match Alabama's depth. The Wildcats play 9 guys double-digit minutes. Of course, Alabama's depth has taken a bit of a hit with the season-ending injury to Latrell Wrightsell, Houston Mallette's bad knees, and the injury to Derrion Reid that kept him out of Tuesday's matchup with Ole Miss.
Alabama has one major statistical advantage over Kentucky
Per KenPom, Kentucky is 2nd in the country in offensive efficiency. But the 'Cats have struggled on the defensive end, ranking 77th in defensive efficiency. Pope's squad has been really good at defending the three-point line, however, allowing opponents to hit under 28% from three on the season, which ranks 7th in the nation.
But Kentucky has struggled defending inside the arc and at the rim. Kentucky allows its opponents to shoot 51.9% from two, a number that ranks them 218th in the country. In conference play, it has been even worse, with the Wildcats allowing opponents to shoot 62.4% from two.
While Kentucky does have one good rim protector in Amari Williams, Alabama's gameplan should be to relentlessly attack the rim against the 'Cats. The kickout three pointers will come, but Alabama has to attack as much as they can, particularly with their own struggles shooting from distance.
Alabama's best player at getting to the rim this year has been freshman guard Labaron Philon, but he has been in a funk the last few games. Oats and company need him to show up in a big way in Lexington. He's a confident kid who will not be overwhelmed by a tough road environment as evidenced by his performances in road games against Purdue and North Carolina.
Mark Sears needs to be Mark Sears and Aden Holloway should get plenty of opportunities as he looks to continue his recent hot streak from everywhere on the floor.
Alabama has been ruthlessly efficient inside the three-point line this season, ranking third in the country in making 61.4% of its two-point attempts. This is partly due to Alabama not taking many mid-range shots, but also due to its ability to finish at the rim.
I would expect a highly motivated Crimson Tide team on Saturday to show up in Lexington. Whether that is enough to win the game or not remains to be seen.