Alabama Basketball has important work to do before the NCAA Tournament. But many Alabama Crimson Tide fans are focused on Alabama's seed in the Big Dance. There are two possibilities. The Crimson Tide will be a 1-seed or a 2-seed.
Alabama does not need any SEC Tournament wins for a 2-seed. A 1-seed will probably take two wins in Nashville. Assuming Kentucky wins over the Oklahoma vs. Georgia winner, a Crimson Tide win over the Cats on Friday might not be enough. Beating Florida on Saturday, or the Gators losing before Saturday would make Alabama a 1-seed. Winning another (Iron Bowl of Basketball (IBOB) on Sunday would be great, but would not affect NCAA Tournament seeding.
Before upsetting Auburn, Alabama was limping toward post-season play in a 2-4 late season struggle. Saturday's win in Auburn indicated the 2-4 run was misleading. Faced with the same schedule as the Crimson Tide, other top teams would have had similar records.
There is another reason why the Crimson Tide's 2-4 slide was so misleading. It is well known that Alabama Basketball has played college basketball's most difficult schedule. Not as well known is that no team considered to be atop national championship contender has had road win success equal to the Crimson Tide.
ESPN may not provide the best college basketball analytics, but their computer model is a useful tool. Based on ESPN Analytics, 10 teams have a better than 9.8% probability of reaching the Final Four. The range is from 11.4% for the Arizona Wildcats to Duke at 56.9%. Alabama Basketball has the fifth highest probability at 22.3%, just above Tennessee at 22.1%, and close behind Florida's 25.6%.
Looking at the away game records of the 10 teams shows Houston at the top with a 10-0 record, followed by Duke at 10-1, Auburn, Texas Tech, and Michigan State at 8-2, and Alabama at 9-3. Florida is next at 7-3, then Tennessee, Iowa State, and Arizona at 6-5.
Digging deeper into which team has the most away game wins against top competition, the Alabama Crimson Tide's record is more impressive than the other teams. Top competition is subjectively defined as ranked high enough in the NCAA NET Rankings to be a potential second-weekend NCAA Tournament team. Only true road games are considered; no neutral site games.
Houston has two quality road wins over Arizona (No. 13) and Texas Tech (No. 7). Florida has two huge road wins over Auburn (No. 2) and Alabama (No. 6). Less impressive are Auburn, Tennessee, and Texas Tech. Auburn's two quality road wins are Alabama (No. 6) and Kentucky (No. 12). Tennessee has road wins over Texas A&M (No. 16) and Kentucky (No. 12). Texas Tech has just one quality road win, over Houston (No. 3).
Duke has just one high-level away game win. It was in November against Arizona (No. 13). The Blue Devils also beat Louisville in December. The Cardinals are now No. 23 in the NCAA NET. Duke recently beat North Carolina in Chapel Hill. The Tar Heels are at No. 40 in the NET.
Alabama Basketball Road Game Success
In addition to Alabama away game wins over Texas and South Carolina, Alabama Basketball has away game wins against six teams ranked in the NCAA NET top 40 teams; Auburn (No. 2); Kentucky (No. 12); Texas A&M (No. 16); Mississippi State (No. 34); Arkansas (No. 39); and North Carolina (No. 40). Adding to the Crimson Tide road success was a neutral site win over Houston (No. 3).
Nate Oats has mentioned that his team seems to relish hostile environments. Will that transfer to the NCAA Tournament when every game is a road game? At the least, it should give the Alabama players a mental edge.