Alabama basketball is reeling and slumping to the finish line of the regular season. The Crimson Tide has lost four of their last six games, including the last two and will be staring a three game losing streak in the face on Saturday at Neville Arena against the top-ranked Auburn Tigers.
It was pretty clear against Florida on Wednesday that Alabama has been worn down by this difficult stretch to finish the season. They look like a team that could use some time off. Fortunately, Oklahoma did them a favor by beating Missouri and clinching a double bye for the Crimson Tide in the SEC Tournament. That means Alabama will not play again until Friday following Saturday's game at Auburn.
There's an argument to be made that Nate Oats should consider resting Alabama's banged up players for this game, particularly Grant Nelson. The graduate senior big man has been gutting out an obvious injury and busting his rear end, but he's severely limited on both sides of the ball and that has had a major impact on his ability to contribute.
But this is also a game that could be a "beat Auburn to avoid Auburn" scenario. If Alabama can go to Neville and knock off the Tigers, they won't see them again until the SEC Tournament Championship at the earliest. It would clinch the 3-seed in the SEC Tournament and put them on the opposite side of the bracket. Unfortunately, Florida is over there and that path isn't likely to be any easier.
It will take a monumental effort to go to Auburn and win. The Gators are the only team to do it this year and the Tigers have only lost three games all year, period. They are one of the favorites to win the whole thing and will almost certainly be the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament with a favorable path through Atlanta to get to the Final Four.
Here's what has to happen for Alabama basketball to have a shot at upsetting Auburn
Auburn is better than Alabama this year. I don't like admitting it, but it's true. I say that to say, the Crimson Tide could conceivably put up its "A" game on Saturday on the Plains and still lose if Auburn matches it with theirs.
First things first, Alabama has to win the rebounding battle by a wide-ish margin. Both the Crimson Tide and Tigers are coming off games where they feel like they got punked on the glass. Alabama finished -15 on the boards against a monstrous Florida front-line.
Auburn, lacking motivation after clinching the SEC regular season title, allowed Texas A&M to do what they do and the Aggies were +16 on the glass in Tuesday's upset win over the Tigers, including a 24-9 edge in offensive rebounds. They will be much more motivated on Saturday.
In the first meeting in Tuscaloosa last month, Alabama won the rebounding battle by nine and doubled up the Tigers on the offensive glass. Rebounding has been one of the Crimson Tide's greatest strengths this season; they rank in the Top 30 in the country in offensive rebounding rate, per KenPom.
Alabama will need much more from Cliff Omoruyi and Grant Nelson on Saturday than they got against Florida. The two combined for 24 rebounds against Auburn in the first meeting but had just 11 on Wednesday night.
Alabama has to shoot better in the second meeting, too. Winning the glass like they did against Auburn in February should have led to a victory, but the Crimson Tide made just 5-of-26 from three-point range in the nine-point loss.
To beat Auburn on the road, it can't just be a good shooting night, either. A 40% effort probably won't be enough. The Crimson Tide needs an abnormally good effort from beyond the arc, something like we saw in the road win over Texas or the recent home win over Mississippi State. That obviously won't be easy against an Auburn defense that is No. 1 in the SEC in three-point defense.
And, more than anything, Alabama's defensive effort has to be as good as it has been all season. Maybe better than that. Auburn is the most efficient offensive team in the country and they will punish the defensive mistakes that the Tide is prone to make.
Omouryi played pretty well in the first meeting in defending Johni Broome. But Alabama's perimeter defense will need to keep the Tigers off of the three-point line. Auburn has shot better than 37% from three this season and guys like Myles Kelly and Chad Baker-Mazzara cannot be given any free space to operate.
One mistake Oats made in the first meeting was not playing freshman big man Aiden Sherrell. With the way Omoruyi and Nelson struggled against Florida, more minutes for Sherrell should be in the cards. He'll likely struggle defending Broome and would be prone to foul trouble, but his ability to stretch the floor gives the Crimson Tide's offense a different identity and could open up the lane for dribble drives that will otherwise be difficult against Broome and Dylan Cardwell.
Can Alabama beat Auburn? Sure. But it will take its best effort of the season in order to pull off the win at Neville.