After an embarrassing blowout defeat at the hands of Florida two weeks ago in Gainesville, Alabama basketball has successfully bounced back. The Crimson Tide is in the midst of a four-game winning streak, knocking off Texas A&M, Auburn, Ole Miss, and South Carolina in a row to climb back into the AP Top 25 and position itself well for a potential double-bye in the SEC Tournament.
While pollsters have been slow to reward Alabama's recent play, ESPN's foremost bracket authority, Joe Lunardi, has taken note. In his updated bracket projection on Tuesday morning, Lunardi has Alabama up to a 4-seed after the Tide had been hanging around the 5-seed line for a while.
Lunardi has Alabama as a 4-seed in the East Regional with a first-round matchup against projected Big South champion High Point (90th in KenPom). Alabama could be looking at a regular-season rematch in the 2nd round against 5-seeded St. John's, with Duke waiting in the Sweet 16 in a potential rematch of last season's Elite Eight.
Alabama's matchup against Arkansas will be critical for NCAA and SEC Tournament seeding
Wednesday night's matchup against Arkansas in Tuscaloosa is one of the biggest games left on Alabama's regular-season schedule. This game will go a long way for both SEC and NCAA Tournament positioning, with the Hogs and Crimson Tide neck-and-neck in both.
Lunardi's seed listing has Alabama at No. 16, which is the final 4-seed. Arkansas is just below them at No. 18 and a projected 5-seed. If the Razorbacks go into Coleman Coliseum on Wednesday and beat the Crimson Tide, it seems obvious that those two positions would flip.
The opposite is true in the SEC standings.
Alabama's four-game winning streak has it at 8-4 in league play, which puts it tied for 3rd place with Vanderbilt, Tennessee, and Kentucky. Arkansas is alone in second place at 9-3, and everyone is chasing Florida at 10-2.
Winning the regular-season SEC Championship probably isn't realistic. But finishing in the top four and earning a double bye for the SEC Tournament is certainly attainable, and beating Arkansas on Wednesday night would go a long way toward that.
Arkansas is the highest-ranked team in KenPom (No. 17) left on Alabama's schedule. An arguably tougher game awaits in two weeks against Tennessee in Knoxville, but this is a critical matchup nonetheless.
If Alabama can defend its homecourt, it will solidify its standing as a 4-seed and lift the team's ceiling to the 3-seed line. A loss not only knocks Alabama down to the 5-seed line, but probably hard caps it with a 4-seed ceiling, and will make it an uphill battle down the stretch to earn a double-bye in the SEC Tournament.