SEC play has been unkind to Nate Oats and Alabama basketball so far. After a 23-point shellacking on the road against Florida on Sunday, the Crimson Tide now sits at a disappointing 4-4 in league play.
The loss to the Gators felt like rock bottom. It wasn't just a loss - it was a bludgeoning. Alabama was physically manhandled by a better and more determined team.
After a hot start to non-conference play that included impressive road wins over St. John's and Illinois, which had Oats talking in bold terms about his team's chances of winning the whole thing, Alabama has been trending in the wrong direction since the calendar flipped to 2026.
On Monday, Alabama fell out of the AP Poll for the first time in two years, breaking the second-longest streak in school history. Bracket updates are following suit.
Alabama is safe from the bubble, but the further it falls down the seed list pecking order, the more difficult the path will be to get to the second weekend of the big dance for the fourth straight year.
Alabama is a consensus 5-seed in the latest NCAA Tournament bracket updates
Alabama is hovering between a 5- and 6-seed in the NCAA Tournament, according to most experts. Bracket Matrix's average has Alabama at 5.22, which is the second-highest 5-seed behind only Virginia.
Joe Lunardi has Alabama as a 5-seed in the South Regional in his updated Bracketology posted on Tuesday morning. Lunardi has Alabama up against 12-seeded Stephen F. Austin, the projected winner of the Southland Conference. Alabama's path to the Sweet 16 would likely run through A.J. Dybantsa and BYU. UConn is the No. 1 seed in that projected region with Houston as the 2, and Nebraska as the 3.
Jerry Palm is one of the few who have Alabama down to the 6-seed line, which would be the lowest seeding for the Crimson Tide since the 2022 NCAA Tournament. As a 6-seed that year, the Crimson Tide faced off against 11-seeded Notre Dame and got knocked out of the first round. It's the only time under Oats that Alabama made the tournament and failed to get out of the first weekend.
Palm's bracket has Alabama in the West Regional facing 11-seeded New Mexico in the opening round. 3-seeded Michigan State would stand between the Tide and the second weekend.
Alabama has a chance to improve its standing this week against two projected tournament teams. First, Texas A&M awaits in Tuscaloosa on Wednesday night. Alabama will then travel down to the Plains to face off against Auburn in the first of two meetings of the Iron Bowl of basketball in 2026.
A couple of wins this week would go a long way toward righting the ship.