KenPom has had the four best teams in college basketball pegged for a couple of months now. Those four teams all advanced to the Final Four, just the second time in NCAA Tournament history that the Final Four will be populated by all four No. 1 seeds.
There's been a substantial gap between the KenPom top four and everyone else. Duke, Houston, Florida, and Auburn have been a cut above everyone else. Alabama and Tennessee populated that next tier of teams, followed by Michigan State, Texas Tech, and others.
If you look at the four teams left standing, they all have something in common. All four are ranked inside the KenPom Top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.
Alabama had the offense - ranking 4th in adjusted offensive efficiency. But defensively, the Crimson Tide sits at 27th, a big improvement from last season's 111th ranked defense, but not where it needed to be considered among the four elite teams this season.
The Tide's defense improved all season long and was playing better than its ranking toward the end of the season. But it was never a Top 10 unit, which is what was needed to have a shot at getting past Duke and ultimately winning the whole thing.
The Blue Devils showed what an elite defense looked like, holding Alabama's high-powered offense to just 65 points in the Elite Eight. With the offensive struggles, the Crimson Tide needed to rely on its defense to stay attached. They got some stops but were never able to string them together when needed to keep the game close, as Duke ultimately pulled away for a 20-point win.
Under Nate Oats, Alabama has had two seasons with elite defensive teams. Coincidentally, Alabama won SEC regular season and tournament titles with defenses that ranked 3rd in KenPom's defensive efficiency in 2021 and 2023. What Oats hasn't done has been able to pair elite offense and elite defense at the same time. That's the next step for Alabama to have a legitimate shot at winning a title.
In 2021, Alabama's offense ranked 30th. In 2023, it was 20th. Offensive struggles and the inability to hit shots doomed both of those teams in the Sweet 16.
Oats and the staff probably got everything they could out of this team on the defensive end of the court. A team that relies so much on smaller guards like Mark Sears and Aden Holloway was always going to have a ceiling defensively. If you have paid attention to the players Alabama is currently linked to in the Transfer Portal, you will see a philosophical change taking place.
Alabama's Transfer Portal targets show a bigger focus on the defensive end
With Sears and Holloway sharing the court, defensive issues were always more glaring. Sometimes, it didn't matter because they would torch the nets offensively (see the BYU game).
But based on who Alabama is targeting so far at guard in the Transfer Portal, Oats wants to add some length to the backcourt. Part of what makes Duke so challenging to play against is that their entire starting five is 6-foot-6 or taller. I wouldn't expect Alabama to roll out lineups quite that big, but Oats certainly seems to be focused on getting bigger guards next to Holloway for next season.
Alabama has targeted Kennesaw State's Adrian Wooley (6-foot-5), Miami (FL)'s Jalil Bethea (6-foot-5), and Monmouth's Abdi Bashir Jr. (6-foot-7). Alabama is also bringing in guard Davion Hannah (6-foot-5) and two lengthy wings in London Jemison (6-foot-8) and Amari Allen (6-foot-7) in this recruiting class.
Alabama is also hosting Bucknell transfer center Noah Williamson (7-foot-0) on a visit this week. With Aiden Sherrell expected to return, the Tide could choose to run a twin-tower approach inside with two guys who can clog the paint and stretch the floor with three-point shooting on the other end.
Two other targets for Alabama - Florida State's Taylor Bol Bowen and LSU's Corey Chest - both come with defensive pedigree. They're lengthy, athletic defenders who can defend multiple positions.
Oats' system always needs floor spacing and guys who can shoot, but it's clear early on with the guys he is targeting in the portal that he is focused on changes on the defensive end of the court that will hopefully elevate the Crimson Tide into that Top 10 defensive tier while maintaining elite offense.
That's what it will take for Alabama to get back to the Final Four and ultimately be the last team standing.